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IMF counts on Russia
07.08.2012 09:35 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
The Russian economy has recently become less vulnerable. Flexible exchange rate and robust balance of foreign currency assets and liabilities will help it to withstand in case of negative impacts from outside. This conclusion was made by the IMF experts.
The current situation in the world economy with instable prices of oil and the eurozone crisis, which has not been formally recognized yet, reminds the crisis in the eurozone of 2008. In this situation, what is positive for Russia is that the Russian government has done a huge amount of work in the past years to defend its economy from outside upheavals. This is crucial when the performances of the world economy as a whole are worsening. For example, the IMF forecasts that the next year’s growth rate will be no more than 3.9 percent. In this context, it has been forecast that Russia’s GDP will grow by 4 percent owing to internal demand, especially consumer demand. To support these conditions, the Russian authorities will have to carry out several minor reforms, says IMF Resident Representative in Russia Odd Per Brekk.
In fact, the assessment of inflation rate, one of the indexes under which IMF forecasts does not match up with the predictions of Russia’s Central Bank. According to foreign experts, in 2013, it will remain at this year’s level of 6.5 percent, but the Central Bank hopes to reduce it down to 4.5–5 percent.
The key moment in the consolidation of the positions of the Russian economy could be the adoption of a new medium-term budget formula. At present, Russian MPs are studying such a project. And the IMF strongly welcomes such an initiative, Odd Per Brekk said.
The IMF pays big attention to Russia and offers advice to improve the economic situation because it hopes for Russia as a partner. The quotas of the countries in the IMF will be reviewed in the near future. For example, BRICS countries may suggest increasing their financial involvement in the International Monetary Fund. This may pave the way for these countries to be the members of the group of the world’s leading economies.
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