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Russia Grain Export Quota to Curb Wheat Exports in 2025
11.01.2025 11:16 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (January 2025), Russia 2024/25 marketing year (Jul-Jun) wheat exports are lowered 1.0 million tons this month to 46.0 million. The world’s top exporter of wheat recently announced that its grain export quota for the latter half of 2024/25 will be the smallest in 5 years. The export quota will be set at 10.6 million tons from February 15 to June 30, 2025, and will prompt a severe decline in Russia’s wheat export pace, indicating that supplies are quickly depleting. Russia’s 2024/25 wheat crop is estimated at 81.5 million tons-a 10.0-million-ton decline from the prior year. Russia also entered the season with smaller beginning stocks than 2023/24, resulting in a 12-percent reduction in supplies year over year. Despite smaller supplies, Russia exported record volumes during the first half of the marketing year. According to Rusagrotrans, Russia wheat exports reached 29.4 million tons between July-December 2024, surpassing last season’s record of 27.7 million tons. Despite import restrictions from major trading partners — Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Turkey — Russian exporters took advantage of limited supplies from its competitor, the European Union, to expand shipments to other markets. Russia’s vigorous export pace has exhausted domestic supplies. According to SovEcon, Russia’s December 1 on-farm wheat stocks were 25 percent lower than the prior year. In order to maintain domestic supplies and curb food price inflation, the Russian government applies a grain export quota for the final portion of the marketing year and a weekly floating export tax on wheat. These restrictive measures have been regularly implemented since 2020, but the export quota for 2025 is extraordinarily low compared to 2024/25 production. The quota will prompt a slowdown in Russian exports beginning in February. Major importers Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia must look to other wheat suppliers such as Argentina, Australia, and the European Union to meet their consumption needs. AGRO PERSPECTIVA offers Agro + «Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market» weekly analytical bulletin. Concerning subscription please contact: client@agroperspectiva.com or +380675964652 (WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram).
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