Agro Perspectiva

Global Olive Oil Production Forecast to Rebound in 2024/25

19.11.2024 23:04 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (November 2024), global olive oil production in 2024/25 is expected to reach almost 3.1 million tons, up 27 percent from last year. This marks a recovery following 2 years of smaller harvests that significantly reduced global supplies and brought prices up to the highest level on record. Most of the world’s olives used to manufacture olive oil are grown in countries surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. This region experienced drought and poor weather conditions in 2022/23 and 2023/24 that negatively affected olive crop yields for many producers. Yields are also expected to be higher in 2024/25 due to the on-year of the alternate bearing crop cycle for olive trees in many growing regions in Spain, Greece, Portugal, Turkey, and Tunisia. Harvest has begun in the Mediterranean region and most producers are expecting a strong crop year, though prices will likely remain elevated due to low global beginning stocks.

The European Union is forecast to produce almost 2.0 million tons of olive oil in 2024/25, up from 1.5 million produced in 2023/24. About two-thirds of European Union olive oil is produced in Spain, where favorable temperatures and rainfall in growing regions during spring and winter contributed to what is expected to be a strong harvest. In Greece and Portugal, production is also expected to rise on favorable weather conditions. Meanwhile, Italy’s production, which had a comparatively strong year in 2023/24, is expected to fall as many olive trees enter a lower yield off-year and on drought and heat in top growing regions in southern Italy.

Olive oil production in most other Mediterranean countries is also expected to rebound in 2024/25.

Turkey and Tunisia, the world’s top producers behind the European Union, are both expected to have strong harvests. Turkey is forecast to produce 350,000 tons of olive oil, up significantly from 190,000 last year, as weather conditions improved and as many trees entered an on-year. Tunisia is forecast to produce 280,000 tons, up from 220,000 last year and following an upward trend due to industry expansion and modernization. Conversely, Morocco is not expected to make a substantial recovery due to poor weather conditions; production is forecast nearly flat in 2024/25 at 110,000 tons and below the 2017/18 to 2021/22 average of 167,000.

Global olive oil exports are forecast to increase to over 1.2 million tons in 2024/25, up 5 percent from last year, but still below the 2017/18 to 2021/22 average

of 1.3 million. The world’s top three exporters — the European Union, Tunisia, and Turkey — are all expected to export larger volumes. Global consumption is

forecast to increase by 17 percent, reaching over 2.8 million tons. Consumption is expected to grow at a lower rate than production as producing countries

replenish stocks that were diminished during the past 2 low-production years. The magnitude of price reductions over the next year will be tempered by the recovery of global supplies, which are forecast to remain below pre-2022/23 levels.