Agro Perspectiva

Tree Nut Import Markets Highly Concentrated

24.10.2024 23:02 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade (October 2024), while tree nut shipments grew significantly over the last decade, imports of almonds, walnuts, and pistachios were dominated by a limited number of countries. In 2023/24, the European Union imported 29 percent of the combined total of these tree nuts, followed by China (12 percent), India, (11 percent), Turkey (9 percent), and the United Arab Emirates (7 percent). Over the last 10 years,

these markets have driven trade with little change in their share of world imports. Continued expansion of world trade will depend not only on growth in these top markets but also enticing increased demand from other markets such as Japan, South Korea, Canada, and the United Kingdom where shipments have stagnated.

The European Union has been the world’s top almond importer for the last 10 years, but shipments peaked at 298,000 metric tons (tons) in 2020/21 before slipping last year to 269,000 tons.

Weakening demand from the food ingredient, snack food, and confectionary industries contributed to lower imports. In contrast, strong demand from India, China, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey during this period contributed significantly to world imports rising over 55 percent to 1.0 million tons in 2023/24. Combined, these top 5 markets accounted for nearly 70 percent of world imports.

The European Union has also been the world’s top walnut market over the last decade and the dominant contributor to world imports, which nearly doubled to 1.1 million tons during this period. Other top markets include Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and India as well as rapidly expanding Kyrgyzstan. These top 5 markets accounted for nearly two-thirds of world imports in 2023/24. Other important markets with expanding demand included Russia, Iraq, and Morocco. Whereas China accounted for over 10 percent of world imports 10 years ago, rising domestic output cut imports significantly, mostly supplied by the United States.

Over the last 10 years, the largest pistachio markets were China and the European Union, both of which imported similar shares of global trade over this period and contributed significantly to world imports rising 90 percent to 575,000 tons. Turkey and India have become increasingly important markets and combined imports from these top 4 markets accounted for 75 percent of world trade last year.

U.S. almond, walnut, and pistachio producers are highly dependent on overseas markets.

Between 2014/15 and 2023/24 the percentage of production exported averaged 69 percent for almonds, 71 percent for walnuts, and 62 percent for pistachios. In recent years, almond export dependency climbed higher on rising shipments and falling output. U.S. walnut export dependency peaked at 81 percent

nearly a decade ago but has since lost ground due to increased competition from China and Chile. The United States has become the dominant pistachio exporter the last few years following supply shortfalls from primary competitor Iran.