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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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The FAO Food Price Index rose in February 2025, driven by higher sugar, dairy and vegetable oil prices

13.03.2025 03:35 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 127.1 points in February 2025, up 2.0 points (1.6 percent) from its revised January level. While the meat price index remained stable, all other price indices rose, with the most significant increases recorded for sugar, dairy and vegetable oils. The overall index was 9.7 points (8.2 percent) higher than its corresponding level one year ago; however, it remained 33.1 points (20.7 percent) below the peak reached in March 2022.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 112.6 points in February, rising by 0.8 points (0.7 percent) from January but remaining 1.2 points (1.1 percent) below its February 2024 level. Wheat export prices increased month-on-month, driven by tighter domestic supplies in the Russian Federation, which constrained export volumes and shifted demand to other suppliers, adding upward pressure on global prices. Additional support to the price increases came from concerns over unfavourable crop conditions in parts of Europe, the Russian Federation and the United States of America. World maize prices continued their upward trend in February, primarily due to tightening seasonal supplies in Brazil, worsening crop conditions in Argentina, and strong export demand for United States’ maize. Among other coarse grains, world prices of barley and sorghum also increased. By contrast, the FAO All Rice Price Index declined by 6.8 percent in February, as ample exportable supplies and weak import demand exerted downward pressure on prices.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 156.0 points in February, up 3.0 points (2.0 percent) from the previous month and as much as 35.1 points (29.1 percent) above its level a year earlier. The increase in the index was driven by higher quotations across palm, rapeseed, soy and sunflower oils. After a brief decline in January, international palm oil prices rebounded moderately and maintained their premiums over competing oils. The increase was largely underpinned by seasonally lower outputs in Southeast Asian producing countries and expectations of increased demand from the biodiesel industry in Indonesia. Meanwhile, global soyoil prices increased on firm global demand, particularly from the food sector. In the case of sunflower and rapeseed oils, prices were mainly supported by concerns over likely tightening supplies in the coming months.

The FAO Meat Price Index* averaged 118.0 points in February, down marginally by 0.1 points (0.1 percent) from January but remaining 5.4 points (4.8 percent) above its level a year ago. International poultry meat prices declined, driven by abundant global supplies primarily due to high export availabilities from Brazil, despite continuing avian influenza outbreaks in other major producing countries. Similarly, pig meat prices softened, pressured by lower quotations in the European Union. While prices showed signs of stabilization, they remained below early January levels (before the outbreak of foot and mouth disease) due to a surplus caused by trade restrictions on German pig meat. By contrast, ovine meat prices rose, underpinned by strong global demand. New Zealand’s export volumes declined due to lower production, but higher slaughter rates in Australia raised supply, limiting the price increases. Meanwhile, bovine meat quotations strengthened, driven by rising Australian prices amid robust global demand, particularly from the United States of America. However, the increase was partially offset by lower Brazilian bovine meat prices due to ample cattle supplies.

The FAO Dairy Price Index stood at 148.7 points in February, rising by 5.7 points (4.0 percent) from January and standing 28.0 points (23.2 percent) higher than its level a year ago. The increase was driven by higher prices across all major dairy products. International cheese prices increased for the third consecutive month, rising by 4.7 percent from January. The rise was fueled by strong import demand, as recovering production in Europe was offset by seasonal output declines in Oceania. Quotations for whole milk powder also increased, up 4.4 percent from January, underpinned by robust demand despite stagnating production in Oceania. International butter prices rebounded, rising by 5.2 points (2.6 percent) month-to-month, as declining milk output in Oceania, following seasonal patterns, coincided with strong domestic and international demand. Prices of skim milk powder registered a modest 1.8-percent increase month-to-month, as seasonally higher production in Europe was offset by declining production in Oceania.

The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 118.5 points in February, up 7.3 points (6.6 percent) from January after three consecutive monthly declines. However, it remained 22.2 points (15.8 percent) lower than its level in February of last year. The increase in world sugar prices was driven by concerns over tighter global supplies in the 2024/25 season. Declining production prospects in India and concerns over the impact of recent dry weather on the upcoming crop in Brazil, which exacerbated the seasonal effect, underpinned the increase in prices. Additionally, the strengthening of the Brazilian real against the United States dollar, which tends to affect exports from Brazil, further contributed to the overall increase in global sugar prices.

* Unlike for other commodity groups, most prices utilized in the calculation of the FAO Meat Price Index are not available when the FAO Food Price Index is computed and published; therefore, the value of the Meat Price Index for the most recent months is derived from a mixture of projected and observed prices. This can, at times, require significant revisions in the final value of the FAO Meat Price Index which could in turn influence the value of the FAO Food Price Index.

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