EU Wheat Exports Fall to Lowest Level in 6 Years

11.03.2025 20:14 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (March 2025), the European Union 2024/25 (July -June) wheat exports are forecast at 27.0 million, the lowest since 2018/19. In 2024/25, EU production was the lowest since 2007/08,1 though exportable supplies were buoyed by strong carryin stocks from the prior 2 years.

Weather problems reduced production in the EU’s large wheat-producing member states — France and Germany — and slow overseas demand stymied exports. Data for the first 8 months of the marketing year indicates EU exports are down around 30 percent from the prior year.

France is typically the largest supplier, normally accounting for over a quarter of EU exports. With France having its smallest crop in decades, other member states with more exportable supplies have comprised a larger share of EU exports. EU Black Sea suppliers Romania (23 percent) and Bulgaria (16 percent) have expanded their share of EU year-to-date exports. In the remaining months of the marketing year, these countries will benefit from limited exportable supplies from the more

dominant Black Sea wheat exporters, Russia and Ukraine.3 North African markets, such as Morocco and Algeria, have shifted to Black Sea suppliers as French supplies remain scarce.

In other foreign markets, EU member states are not expected to fully offset the decline in French wheat exports. For instance, China has been one of the top EU markets in recent years. France and Hungary are the only EU member states with bilateral phytosanitary protocols to export wheat to China. Trade with China is limited not only by limited exportable supplies from those two countries but also by a dramatic reduction in China’s import demand, slashed by over half from the prior year.

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