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2010 Trade Forecast Revision
15.04.2010 12:10 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
World trade in beef remains virtually unchanged from the October forecast. Despite robust demand in most markets due to global economic recovery, tight exportable supplies continue to limit import growth. Stronger than expected economic recovery in Asia will bolster demand in key markets such as South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan — benefiting U.S. exports which are revised upward. U.S. imports are forecast lower, despite tighter domestic supplies, as Asian markets will likely bid aggressively for Oceania and Uruguayan product. Russian imports are raised on stronger demand and an expected higher quota exemption. Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, will benefit from the Russian boost, as well as the continued forecast reduction in Argentine exports.
World trade in pork is raised slightly. Stronger demand from Asia, particularly China and Hong Kong, is expected in the second half of 2010 as economic conditions improve. Chinese imports will also be facilitated by the lifting of H1N1-related trade bans. Russian imports are revised upwards despite a lower tariff rate quota volume. High domestic prices spurred by tight supplies of animal protein are expected to encourage trade outside the quota. Greater exports from the EU and Brazil are expected as they are poised to take advantage of strong Asian and Russian demand. Some additional EU pork shipments will likely replace live swine exports. The United States will benefit from stronger Mexican demand, although tight domestic supplies and weaker demand from Japan and South Korea are expected to constrain overall export growth.
World trade in broiler meat remains fairly stable. The December announcement of an 18 percent decline in the Russian 2010 tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume resulted in a downward revision in its import forecast, which in October had been based on higher 2009 TRQ level. Import estimates for some smaller, non-traditional markets, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, are lower. Iraqi imports are revised upward despite expanding production. Higher EU exports are expected based on stronger demand in Asian and Middle Eastern markets. U.S. exports are lower based mainly on the 20 percent reduction of its Russian TRQ allocation to 600,000 tons and weaker demand from several other markets.
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