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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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Pistachios. Global production for 2022/23 is forecast to 791,000 MT

02.03.2023 11:15 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade (February 2023), pistachios global production for 2022/23 is forecast to slip 5 percent to 791,000 metric tons (tons) as declines in top producing countries the United States and Iran more than offset gains in Turkey. With lower output from top exporters, global shipments are forecast down nearly 20 percent to 403,000 tons. Consumption is expected nearly flat at 763,000 tons.

Iran

Iran production, reported by the Iranian Pistachio Association, is forecast to drop 21 percent to 106,000 tons as yields drop for a third consecutive year due to a combination of factors including frost and drought. As a result of the smaller harvest, exports are forecast 30 percent lower to 80,000 tons.

United States

U.S. production is forecast to decline 23 percent to 401,000 tons due to lower yields from the off-year. This forecast is based on shipments data from the Administrative Committee for Pistachios. Prior years are based on data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) as reported in the Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts report. Exports are forecast to drop nearly 20 percent from last year’s record to 270,000 tons as weak shipments to China are expected to more than offset higher shipments to the EU. Ending stocks are

forecast 20 percent lower than last year’s record primarily due to reduced output.

Turkey

Turkey production is forecast to jump 140 percent to 210,000 tons due to high yields from the on-year of the alternate bearing crop cycle. Large swings in output are typical. Approximately 80 percent of output is concentrated in the southeastern part of Turkey, and trees in this area benefited from favorable growing conditions this year. Higher production has a limited effect on trade as most of the

additional harvest is either consumed domestically or inventoried.

Ñhina

China imports are forecast to crater 45 percent to 80,000 tons primarily due to reduced output in Iran, the major supplier since China implemented retaliatory tariffs against the United States in 2018. Importers can apply for exclusion from the Section 301 tariffs applied to shipments from the United States. However, U.S. pistachios are still subject to China’s Section 232 retaliatory tariffs which stand at

15 percent in addition to MFN duties.

EU production is forecast down 4 percent to 24,000 tons on slight losses in Spain and Italy due to the off-year of the alternate bearing crop cycle. Imports are expected to increase 11 percent to 135,000 tons, with the United States supplying most of the market.

Agro Perspectiva

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02.03.2023

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