Agro Perspectiva

Brazil Continues to Dominate Growth in Global Chicken Meat Exports in 2025

15.10.2024 09:35 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade (October 2024), following 2 years of relatively stagnant trade, world chicken meat exports are forecast to rise 2 percent in 2025 to reach a record 13.8 million tons. While this growth is supported by several major suppliers, Brazil expansion buoys a large portion due to its expected record level shipments. The 2025 forecast follows the recent trend (since the COVID pandemic) by which Brazil share of world trade continues to increase largely at the expense of the United States and the EU.

Various Factors Drive Expansion Rates

There is not one predominant factor that drives Brazil exports to climb to a record level. Expansion is propelled by a combination of its disease-free status, export orientation and product offering, as well as competitive pricing.

Many of these factors also support increased Thailand exports which are expected to reach record levels.

• Disease-Related Restrictions

Brazil continues to maintain its status as free from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) as outbreaks have been limited to wild birds and backyard flocks, with no cases in commercial operations. As a result, there has been no impact on production or trade restrictions imposed by key markets. Similarly, Thailand has not experienced a case of commercial HPAI since 2009. While recent outbreaks of HPAI in commercia operations in the United States and the EU have had minimal impacts on production, lingering HPAI-related trade restrictions continue to constrain shipments to several markets.

In July 2024, Brazil confirmed an outbreak of Newcastle disease (NCD) in a commercial operation in Rio Grande do Sul (RGS) — its first case since 2006 (backyard case). The impact on production was negligible and trade restrictions were largely resolved within 1 month. Lingering restrictions may limit exports from Rio Grande do Sol but do not have an impact on total Brazil shipments as exporters will source from states with eligible supplies. Rio Grande do Sol accounts for approximately 11 percent of Brazil chicken meat production.

Producing to Export: Orientation and Product Offering

Brazil and Thailand direct a greater portion of production to exports compared to the United States and the EU. Thus, Brazil and Thailand are producing for export rather than primarily for their domestic markets. Export orientation is only feasible if a country can offer the range of products demanded by foreign markets. Several key global markets import a broad variety of products such as breast meat, whole birds, deboned meat, prepared products, etc. Thus, growth in U.S. shipments is generally limited as domestic demand for breast meat constrains the range of products for export. Nearly 60 percent of U.S. broiler meat exports in 2023 were frozen leg and leg quarters, generally bone-in. Similarly, specific requirements by several key markets such

as feed use (vegetarian) and religious-based slaughter are also challenging for the domestically orientated U.S. industry to fulfill.