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Chile: Walnut production estimates in 165,000 MT in 2022/23 MY

29.08.2022 14:57 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U. S. Department of Agriculture attache in The Santiago, for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post estimates 165,000 metric tons (MT) of walnut production, a 7.8 percent increase from MY 2021/22 following an increase in area planted and higher yields.

Production:

Post estimates area planted to increase by 1.8 percent in in MY 2022/23 and reach 44,500 ha. Walnut area planted reached 43,375 ha in MY 2021/22 a 0.1 percent increase over MY 2020/21.

The expected growth is in line with historic changes, as area planted has grown steadily since MY 2011/12. Notably, since MY 2020/21, growth in area planted slowed due to a decrease in revenues for Chilean walnut exporters because of increasing production, processing, and transport costs.

Despite the recent decrease in revenues, demand for Chilean walnuts is strong and industry contacts anticipate continued long-term growth.

Walnut area planted is in the central-south part of the country between the Valparaiso region and Maule regions. The top production region is the Metropolitana region, which accounts for 37.6 percent of the area planted. Area planted grew by 16.4 percent during the last three years. Only the Coquimbo region, which holds 4.9 percent of the area planted, showed a decrease in the past three marketing years, attributed entirely to drought. Post expects total area planted to continue growing, but possibly at a slower rate than in past marketing years.

Post projects that walnut yields in MY 2022/23 will increase due an improvement in water availability for irrigation in the walnut production area. With increased walnut yields and growing area planted, Post estimates 165,000 MT of walnut production for MY 2022/23, a 7.8 percent increase over MY 2021/22.

Consumption:

Post estimates MY 2022/23 walnut domestic consumption at 2,750 MT, which represents a 1.9 percent increase over MY 2021/22. The increase is based on a normalization of the Chilean economy after the COVID-19 pandemic and an expected population growth of 1.6 percent per year.

Domestic consumption of walnuts represents a small share of total production, since the Chilean population is relatively small (19.8 million) compared to many export markets such as Turkey or India. Chileans consume shelled walnuts as snacks, and these are generally high quality in terms of color, size, and shape. The confectionary industry uses walnuts as an ingredient in many products such as desserts, pastries, and chocolates. Industry generally purchases chopped walnuts, which tend to be lower cost.

Trade:

A difficulty that all Chilean exporters experienced in MY 2021/22 was the general increase in freight costs long port delays, and high demand for logistical services. These logistical issues slowed down export volumes and increased walnut stocks. Logistical issues are expected to persist in MY 2022/23, so

exporters are adapting and planning the timing of shipments. International demand for Chilean walnuts remains strong.

Figure 2 shows monthly export volumes of walnuts. In MY 2021/22, there is a delay in export volumes compared to MY 2020/21. Due to logistics constraints, monthly exports in MY 2022/23 were lower in all months except for June, when export volumes surpassed the volume of the two previous marketing

years.

Agro Perspectiva

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