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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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World apple production for MY 2023/24 is forecast to rise more than 700,000 tons to 83.7 million

01.07.2024 08:58 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Oilseeds: Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: (June 2024), world apple production for MY 2023/24 is forecast to rise more than 700,000 tons to 83.7 million as increases for the United States and China more than offset losses for the European Union and Turkey. Exports are projected up 10 percent to 6.0 million tons on higher shipments from the United States and Iran.

China production is estimated to grow 500,000 tons to 45.0 million despite declining area planted as growers increase yields in existing orchards. Exports are estimated up nearly 100,000 tons to 870,000 on higher shipments to Vietnam, Philippines, Bangladesh, and Nepal. Imports are forecast down 10,000 tons to 85,000 on lower shipments from Southern Hemisphere suppliers.

EU production is estimated to contract 475,000 tons to 12.2 million on cold temperatures and poor pollination across major producing countries. Exports are expected to decline by 65,000 tons to 970,000 on lower production and weaker demand from top market Egypt due to a foreign currency shortage. Imports are forecast up more than 15 percent to 265,000 tons as higher shipments from North Macedonia, Moldova, and Serbia supplement domestic

consumption.

U.S. production is estimated up 636,000 tons to 5.0 million, the highest level in 6 years. Good weather in Washington, the top producing state, led to increased yields and rebounding production volumes up 25 percent year-over-year. Combined with continued high production in Michigan, this more than offset a smaller crop in New York. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) surveyed industry and updated U.S. production in the May 2024

Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2023 Summary report. Exports are projected to rise 274,000 tons to 885,000 on higher production with increased shipments to Mexico, Taiwan, and India. Imports are projected to rise slightly to 105,000 tons on steady demand.

Chile production is forecast to contract slightly to 870,000 tons due to a continued decline in area planted as growers transition to more profitable crops. Exports are projected to fall slightly to 463,000 tons, the lowest level since MY 1999/2000.

South Africa production is forecast to rise 75,000 tons to 1.2 million on favorable weather and an increase in area harvested. This marks a rebound from last year’s hail-damaged crop and nearly matches the record crop in MY 2021/22. Exports are expected to grow by 43,000 tons to 650,000 on higher shipments to India and the European Union. If realized, South Africa will remain the largest Southern Hemisphere apple exporter for the third

consecutive year.

New Zealand production is projected up 40,000 tons to 483,000 due to favorable weather conditions as growers partially recover from Cyclone Gabrielle which damaged orchards in February 2023. Production remains below pre-cyclone levels as the high costs and lag times associated with replanting orchards means that area planted is unlikely to recover in the short- term. Exports are expected to rise 21,000 tons to 330,000 as production recovers.

Agro Perspectiva

< World coffee production for 2024/25 is forecast to rebound 7.1 million bags

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01.07.2024

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