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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

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World peach and nectarine production is forecast down 1.1 million metric tons to 21.0 million

23.09.2020 14:40 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Fresh Peaches and Cherries: World Markets and Trade (September 2020), world peach and nectarine production is

forecast down 1.1 million metric tons (tons) to 21.0 million as adverse weather conditions impact output in top producers China and the European Union. Global

trade is expected to contract on reduced global supplies.

China production is expected to decline 500,000 tons to 14.5 million due to heavy April snow that impacted fruit set in most peach-growing provinces. Exports are expected to drop one-third to 80,000 tons as Russia continues its ban on imports of fruit from China, including stone fruit.

China’s third-largest market prior to the ban, Russia initiated the action in August 2019 due to phytosanitary concerns. China’s imports are forecast up over 40 percent to 38,000 tons, reflecting a strong jump in supplies from Chile at the beginning of the marketing year before COVID-19 disruptions impacted shipments.

EU production is forecast to fall over 600,000 tons to 3.5 million following last year’s nearrecord supplies, as a variety of damaging weather events affected output in leading producers

Spain, Italy, Greece, and France. Surplus peach production over the last several years has also prompted reductions in planting area in Spain, Italy, and France, with Spain shifting some production towards tree nuts. Reduced output is projected to lower exports 24,000 tons to 155,000 yet lift imports only slightly as demand is met mostly by domestic supplies. U.S. production is projected to contract 26,000 tons to 691,000 as orchards in Colorado and several East Coast states experienced damaging freezes. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) surveyed industry and published the U.S. forecast for peach production in the August 2020 Crop Production report. Exports are expected to ease 4,000 tons to 67,000 on lower shipments to top markets Mexico, Taiwan, and Australia. Imports are also anticipated lower to 33,000 tons on reduced shipments from Chile in the beginning of the marketing year. The United States is now eligible to export nectarines to China, per the U.S.-

China Economic and Trade Agreement signed in January 2020. The General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) published a list of approved U.S. packing houses on April 26, officially opening the market to U.S.-origin nectarines from five counties in California. Since the publishing of the approved U.S. packing houses, trade data indicates shipments have begun.

Turkey production is anticipated up for a sixth straight year of growth, rising 40,000 tons to 870,000 on good weather during bloom and harvest. In line with production, persistent growth also marks Turkey’s exports. Higher supplies and less expected competition in Russia due to the absence of China is expected to drive exports up 40,000 tons to a record 140,000, nearly tripling in 4 years. Export success is in turn spurring further investment in production, prompting

continued expansion in planting area to meet export demand and a growing juice industry.

Chile production is expected to see a small rise to 170,000 metric tons on good growing conditions and stable planting area. In line with production, exports are expected to see a slight improvement to 105,000 tons on higher shipments to China.

Japan production is forecast to continue its downward trend, eroding 10,000 tons to 98,000 on an extensive rainy season. If realized, this would mark the first time in USDA’s production, supply, and distribution database that Japan’s production has been below 100,000 tons.

Australia production is projected up 5,000 tons to 120,000 on adequate winter chill and good water supplies. Australia production has been experiencing a modest upward trend since 2017, which is expected to continue in coming years as older trees are being replanted with newer higher-yield varieties. Despite higher supplies, COVID-related air freight challenges are expected to lower exports to 13,000 tons while boosting domestic consumption to 109,000.

Russia imports are expected to halt their 2-year decline, recovering slightly to 200,000 tons as higher shipments from Turkey more than offset losses from banned China supplies.

Agro Perspectiva

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