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U.S. Corn Exports Forecast to Tie Record
12.10.2018 15:10 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Strong foreign demand, a continued lack of competition, and abundant supplies are expected to brighten export prospects well into 2018/19 (Oct-Sep). U.S. exports are currently forecast at 62.5 million tons, tying the record from 2017/18. Early season sales of new-crop corn have been robust. As of the end of September, sales were up sharply from a year ago, and now represent nearly a quarter of the current forecast. Strong sales in the early season do not necessarily lead to strong exports throughout the year, e.g. 2017/18. However, they do shed light on trade dynamics responding to the global feed grain market situation. Combined global wheat and barley production is forecast to decline 3 percent from a year ago due to damage from hot and dry weather, tightening exportable supplies available to the world market. This may have triggered the rush for corn purchases to ensure adequate alternatives in feed rations. U.S. exports are raised this month reflecting higher expected demand for Mexico, and exports for Russia are lowered due to a smaller crop. Moreover, developments surrounding the minimum freight rate in Brazil and the new tax scheme on agricultural exports including corn in Argentina add uncertainties to their export outlook. Much of Ukraine’s corn is expected to find a home in Europe where alternative feedstuffs are needed to mitigate the impact of smaller wheat and barley supplies. U.S. corn prices have remained competitive for much of 2018. With larger-than-anticipatedstocks of old crop reported in USDA-NASS’s Grain Stocks and the forecast near-record new crop on the way, the United States has abundant supplies to meet rising global feed demand. For this year, at least, large early season sales bode well for another year of near-record exports.
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