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Last year's GDP growth of more than 5% rather realistic
24.01.2012 14:16 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
The Ukrainian economy finished last year on a high note, Valeriy Lytvytsky, the head of the group of advisers of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) governor.
«Annual GDP growth of 5% or more is highly probable and very realistic (5.2% according to preliminary estimates of the Cabinet of Ministers),» he said. He said that for the second time in the economic history of independent Ukraine, GDP growth accelerated compared with the previous year, while consumer price inflation slowed. Such a divergence of basic macroeconomic trends was observed for the second consecutive year. The budget figure (4.7%) was again exceeded by approximately 0.5%. The figure in 2010 (4.2%) was exceeded by approximately 1%. All branches of real sector grew, while in 2010, agriculture and construction were still in a recession (- 1.5% and -5.4%, respectively). There was a rotation of the leaders of economic recovery. The pace of growth in agriculture was 17.5%, which is the second highest figure since 2004 (19.7%). Taking into account the more favorable comparison base in 2004, the figure of the previous year is the best in the history of independent Ukraine. The historic peak in the yield of grain has been updated — 56 million tons. The pace of growth in retail trade was 13.7%, which is almost twice higher than last year (7.8%). The volume of construction work grew by 11.1%, after falling by 5.4% in 2010. Investment in fixed assets has increased for the first time since 2007 — by 21% in the first nine months of 2011. Only industry and transport saw a slowdown in positive dynamics. The figure of cargo turnover on transport was 5.7% versus 6.1% in 2010. There was a more significant slowdown of growth in industry: from 11.2% in 2010 to 7.3% in 2011. According to Lytvytsky, the weakening of the dynamics of these industries is connected, in particular, to the deterioration of conditions of world trade for a number of sub-sectors of industry (metallurgy, chemistry), as well as the high base of comparison in 2010. As last year’s practice showed, Lytvytsky said, the compression of the external demand could be compensated for by strengthening the role of a number of branches that mainly operate for Ukrainian consumers (trade, agriculture), as well as investment-forming sectors (construction, manufacturing non-metallic mineral production, engineering).
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