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Decline of China Pork Imports Continues in 2024
15.07.2024 10:28 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
The revised 2024 forecast for China pork imports anticipates a 21 percent decline year on year to 1.5 million tons, the lowest since 2019. If realized, 2024 imports will return to similar levels to before China’s outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), which began to impact China production at the end of 2018. Despite forecast lower imports, China is expected to remain the largest global pork importer. At the peak of ASF outbreaks in 2020, imports accounted for 13 percent of China pork consumption. The import share of consumption has steadily declined since then as domestic production recovered from ASF and returned to pre-ASF levels in 2022. For 2024, China pork production is forecast 56 percent higher than 2020 and 2024 imports are projected to account for only 3 percent of consumption. Due in part to abundant domestic supplies, stubbornly low pork prices in China since early 2023 have weakened demand for imports. Average reported pork prices were 10 percent lower during the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 and 56 percent lower than the first quarter of 20201 . For many major foreign suppliers, it is difficult for their exports to remain competitive in the China market given low domestic prices. Major global pork suppliers to China — including the European Union, Brazil, and the United States — are expected to seek alternative markets. However, these markets will only partially offset lower China demand. As a result, competition is expected to increase in other large import markets including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
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