Competition Tightens for Leading Pork Exporter

12.01.2024 23:53 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade (January 2024), the revised 2024 forecast of pork shipments by U.S. and EU, the world’s top two exporters, are nearly on par for the first time since 2015. U.S. and EU exports for 2024 are both revised lower compared to the October forecast. However, the gap is narrowed for these competitors as U.S. shipments are revised only 1 percent lower whereas EU shipments are revised 3 percent lower.

The downward revisions for U.S. and EU exports are driven by expected weaker shipments to China, the world’s largest importer. Continued weak demand by China reduces export opportunities, particularly for the EU. Although U. S. export volumes to China remain a significant part of total exports, U.S. share of exports to China is less than for the EU. In 2022, U.S. shipments to China accounted for 10 percent of total exports, while EU shipments to China accounted for 27 percent of total exports.

In addition, EU production has declined in recent years and is revised 2 percent lower in 2024, tightening exportable supplies. Forecast growth in U.S. production and lower prices are expected to underpin U.S. exports competitiveness in several markets.

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