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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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Global rapeseed supplies in 2022/23 are projected to a record 100.5 MMT

02.06.2022 11:11 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (May 2022), global rapeseed supplies in 2022/23 are projected to rise 10 percent to a record 100.5 million tons as production in Canada recovers from last year’s devastating drought. Both global harvested area and production are projected to be records. Reduced carryover, the smallest in nearly 20 years, will necessitate some stock-building in the coming year and provide a measure of price support. Exports are projected to rise significantly above this year’s current forecast but will fall short of the 2020/21 record volume as stock building and strong crush recovery in Canada restrict exportable supplies. Global rapeseed crush is forecast to reach a record 75.1 million tons.

Global rapeseed meal production is forecast up 7 percent to a record in 2022/23. Canada leads the way in production growth as seed supplies rebound. Larger seed supplies in the European Union and China, driven by larger production and seed imports, will facilitate crush and meal production growth in the coming year. Global rapeseed meal trade is projected to rise nearly 1.0 million tons as importers push purchases to near 2020/21 levels. Much of this is driven by increased exports from Canada. Higher meal production and increased trade will support record global consumption.

Record global crush will also push rapeseed oil production to a record 30.7 million tons in 2022/23. The same dynamics driving rapeseed meal trade and consumption are also in play in the oil market. Global rapeseed oil supplies are expected to remain tight with rising consumption and tight supplies of other

oils. Consumption is projected to rise 1.0 million tons, reaching a record 30.2 million. Food oil use accounts for most of the growth with industrial use, primarily in biofuels, expected to grow slowly. Global rapeseed oil stocks will improve over this year’s low but will likely remain well below the 10-year average stock level.

Highlights

• United States rapeseed production in 2022/23 is forecast record large following last season’s drought. A return to trend yield and record plantings will drive production growth. A larger crop in Canada will boost imports and allow crush to rise to near the 2020/21 record. Rapeseed meal imports, primarily from Canada, are projected to rebound to near the 2020/21 level with consumption near the 5-year average. Record oil production and imports will support record

consumption in the coming year.

• Australia rapeseed production is forecast to decline 1.7 million tons below this year’s record. Stable plantings and a return to trend yield are driving the lower production. Exports will respond by falling 1.1 million tons with crush remaining near maximum volume. This will allow domestic consumption of meal and oil to remain near current levels and limit oil exports to near this year’s forecast.

• Canada rapeseed production is projected at recover from this year’s drought reduced crop. A return to trend yield is projected to raise production to 20.0 million tons. Planted area is forecast lower on competition with wheat and other grains. Both crush and exports are forecast to rise from this year’s depressed levels but will fall short of those seen in the recent past. Projected carryin at a 9- year low and a need to replenish working stocks will be a limiting factor. Exports of meal and oil will return to near-normal levels in 2022/23 as strong U.S. demand supports higher exports.

• China rapeseed imports in 2022/23 are projected to rise in conjunction with the increase in Canada’s production. Local production is forecast at a record volume as trend yields coupled with the largest plantings in nearly 10 years pushes production 5 percent higher. This will yield a larger crush and increase in meal and oil consumption in the coming year. Growing meal and oil supplies inForeign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 May 2022 Global Market Analysis

Canada will provide the means to maintain meal imports at current levels while adding to rape oil

imports and replenishment of rapeseed oil stocks.

• European Union rapeseed production is projected to rise on larger plantings in 2022/23. Imports are forecast to recover as larger supplies in Canada more than offset reduced availability from Australia. Projected larger supplies will permit both an increase in crush and replenishment of stocks depleted this year. Additional meal and oil production will go towards maintaining rapeseed meal consumption near historic norms and allowing food oil consumption to maintain trend growth.

• Ukraine rapeseed production is forecast to rise despite the ongoing hostilities. Near-record planted area will drive production of 3.2 million tons. Rapeseed area is concentrated in western Ukraine, away from the hostilities. Yield is forecast to fall below 2021, closer to trend. Historically, close to 90 percent of production is exported as seed, with 90 percent of exports to Europe. Consequently, Ukraine is less reliant on Black Sea port access and presents growers with an attractive option for planting. Crush is projected to rise modestly with increased exports of meal and oil, primarily to Europe.

Agro Perspectiva

< Global soybean production in 2022/23 is forecast at a record 394.7 MMT

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02.06.2022

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