Agro Perspectiva

USA. Grain stocks dow 7%

19.07.2010 09:53 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — U.S. corn inventories may slide 7.1 percent next year, the government said, as demand grows and after excess rain prompted farmers to plant less and trimmed yield potential. «The reduction in the corn carryover has drastically changed the supply dynamics,» Roy Huckabay, the executive vice president of Chicago-based Linn Group, said before the report. «Too much rain in the Midwest and hot, dry weather in the southern and eastern U.S. are causing crops to walk backwards.» Corn futures for December delivery rose 7 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $3.9625 a bushel yesterday on the Chicago Board of Trade, after touching $3.975, the highest price since Jan. 12. The most-active contract has jumped 15 percent since June 29, the day before the USDA said farmers planted less than they intended this year. Smaller inventories may raise costs for companies including hog-processor Smithfield Foods Inc. and poultry-producer Pilgrim’s Pride Corp., which say corn-based feed is their biggest expense. Ethanol makers such as Archer Daniels Midland Co. also may have to pay more for raw materials. The USDA said in June that 87.872 million acres (35.6 million hectares) of corn were planted this year, based on a survey of farmers. That’s up 1.6 percent from a year earlier. In March, growers indicated they would plant 88.789 million. U.S. production is projected at 13.245 billion bushels, down 0.9 percent from 13.37 billion forecast last month. Last year’s crop was estimated at a record 13.11 billion. Average yields in 2010 may fall to 163.5 bushels an acre from an estimated 164.7 bushels last year. That estimate was unchanged from last month. The amount of corn used to make ethanol in the marketing year that begins Sept. 1 will increase 4.4 percent to 4.7 billion bushels from the current year, the USDA said. Exports will be unchanged from this year’s 1.95 billion bushels, according to the department, which cut its forecast 2.5 percent from last month. World production in the crop year that begins Oct. 1 will reach 832.4 million metric tons, down from June’s projection of 835.8 million while up 2.9 percent from the current year, the USDA said. Global consumption is forecast to jump 1.7 percent to 830.89 million from a record 816.83 million in the 12 months through September. China, the world’s largest corn consumer after the U.S., will import 100,000 tons in fiscal 2011, unchanged from last month’s forecast, the USDA said. This year’s imports are estimated at 1 million. China will become a net importer this year for the first time since 1996, USDA said. Worldwide inventories will total 141.08 million tons on Oct. 1, 2011, the lowest since 2008 and down from a revised 147.32 million forecast for the end of this marketing year. In June, the USDA projected 147.3 million. Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at a $48.6 billion in 2009, government figures show.