Agro Perspectiva

US. Corn Production Decreases From Last Month In 2010/11

14.07.2010 12:49 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — The projection for 2010/11 corn production was decreased 1 percent from last month as a result of decreased plantings. Producers decreased plantings 926,000 acres from their March intentions to 87.9 million acres. Plantings are up from 86.5 million in 2009. Forecast harvested area is decreased 754,000 acres month to 81.0 million acres. The largest year-to-year increases in planted area were recorded in Illinois and Kansas, both up 600,000 acres from last year. Other notable increases were shown in Indiana, up 400,000 acres; Missouri, up 300,000 acres; and Ohio, up 250,000 acres. The largest declines occurred in Iowa, down 400,000, and Nebraska and South Dakota, both down 350,000 acres from last year. The national average yield projection remains unchanged from last month at 163.5 bushels per acre, down from 164.7 bushels per acre in 2009/10. As of July 4, 71 percent of the corn crop was rated in good to excellent condition, the same as this time last year. Projected corn use for 2010/11 is down 50 million bushels this month to 13.36 billion. Feed and residual use and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use remain unchanged at 5.35 billion and 6.06 billion bushels, respectively. Expected corn use for ethanol also remains unchanged this month at 4.7 billion bushels. Exports for 2010/11 were decreased by 50 million bushels to 1.95 billion bushels, as tighter domestic supplies, strong demand from ethanol production, and rising prices reduce the export competitiveness of U.S. corn. As a result, 2010/11 ending stocks were projected 200 million bushels lower at 1.373 billion. For 2009/10, projected corn use is up 125 million bushels from last month to 13.315 billion bushels. Feed and residual is raised 175 million bushels from last month to reflect higher-than-expected third-quarter (March-May) disappearance as indicated in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. FSI use is lowered 50 million bushels this month, as corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels, reflecting the latest ethanol production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Although daily ethanol disappearance set another record in April, daily production slipped below March’s record pace. EIA’s new weekly ethanol production data series (first reported for the week ending June 4) suggests June production, while up from April, will not reach the pace seen in March. Corn exports for 2009/10 remain unchanged this month at 1.95 billion bushels. With 2010/11 ending stocks projected lower this month, prices are projected higher. The marketing-year average farm price for 2010/11 is projected at $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range. The 2009/10 marketing-year average price is expected to be $3.50 to $3.60 per bushel.