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U.S. 2010-11 rice export forecast raised to 109 million cwts
17.06.2010 11:27 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
The U. S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service’s June 11 Rice Outlook report forecast rice production at a record 244 million cwts, up 11% from a year earlier.
The report also indicated a 3 million cwts reduction in the total supply forecast from last month to 293.4 million cwts, still the highest on record. ERS forecast the carryin decreasing 2 million cwts to 28.4 million, the smallest since 2004–05 and the 2010–11 import forecast decreased 1 million cwts to 21 million cwts, still 5% above a year earlier and the second highest on record.
On the use side, forecasts for both total domestic and residual use and for exports increased. The ERS forecast total domestic and residual at a record 139 million cwts. U.S. exports in 2010–11 are projected at 109 million cwts, up 2 million cwts from last month’s forecast and the highest since 2005–06. Overall, these revisions resulted in a 6 million cwts reduction in the ending stocks forecast for 2010–11 to 45.4 million cwts, up 60% from this year and the highest since 1986–87.
The 2010–11 U.S. season-average farm price for long-grain rice decreased 25¢ on both ends to $9.75-$10.75 per cwt, well below a revised $12.85-$13.05 in 2009–10. The combined medium- and short-grain 2010–11 U.S. season-average farm price remains projected at $14.50-$15.50 per cwt, down from a slightly revised 2009–10 season average price of $17.75-$17.95. In 2010–11, the ERS said U.S. prices will be pressured lower by weaker global prices and larger U.S. and global supplies.
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