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US corn's strong start provokes raised yield hopes
04.06.2010 12:37 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
The fine condition of the US corn crop, which is enjoying near-record ratings, is prompting analysts to notch up yield expectations, with one broker musing on a repeat of the step change of 1994.
The US Department of Agriculture has rated 76% of the crop as in «good» or «excellent» condition, a jump of five percentage points in a week, and significantly better than the 60% figure a year ago.
Indeed, it was the highest rating since the record 78% set in 2007.
«If the rating stays in place very long, the yield expectations will increase significantly from the USDA number that they are using in the supply and demand projections,» Darrell Holaday at Country Future said.
In fact, many brokers are already talking of a yield of 167 bushels per acre, 3.5 bushels per acre more than the USDA is forecasting, US Commodities said.
And the broker itself has raised the prospect of a 183 bushels-per-acre crop — implying an extra 1.6bn bushels of production — noting the step change achieved in 1994, a year of near-ideal weather throughout the growing season.
«Crop were never threatened by weather all year. That was the driving force of the increase in yields,» Don Roose, the US Commodities president, told Agrimoney.com.
This time a yield jump, which reached 38% year-on-year in 1994, could be fuelled by genetically modified seed.
«Companies are telling us to expect a great increase in yields. Maybe this year will be when we see what the seeds are capable of,» Mr Roose said.
«However, we need to take one step at a time,» he added, noting the potential for a La Nina, a weather pattern which often brings heatwaves to the US, to damage crops.
The USDA report also showed the spring wheat crop rates 85% good or excellent, the highest since 1994, with the proportion rated poor or very poor too small to show up in the national figures.
The condition of winter wheat is heading into harvest with 65% rated in the top two condition bands, a marginal decline week on week, but significantly better than the 45% figure a year ago.
«Wheat harvest is underway in southern Oklahoma and yields are significantly better than a year ago and will likely get better,» Mr Holaday said.
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