India Wheat Stocks Plummet to Lowest in 15 Years

12.02.2024 16:45 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (February 2024), India is coming to the end of marketing year 2023/24 (April 2023-March 2024) with historically tight government-held wheat ending stocks. India is the third-largest producer and consumer of wheat, behind China and the European Union. The government maintains domestic support programs for

producers and subsidies for the vast majority of consumers. The Food Corporation of India procures wheat from producers and maintains government stocks for public distribution programs. Notably, government-held stocks this January plummeted to the lowest level since 2017. In addition to the higher

offtake for food security programs, the government has been rapidly auctioning stocks to the open market in an effort to quell high cereal price inflation. The 2023/24 ending stocks (as of April 1, 2024) are now forecast at the lowest in 15 years and only slightly above the government’s minimum desired

buffer stocks level.

India has been mostly absent from global wheat trade as its stocks tightened. Despite rising domestic wheat prices, the Indian government has imposed an import tariff of 40 percent since April 2019. The tariff has made imported wheat largely uncompetitive. However, as domestic prices have risen, recent

shipments of wheat to India have been reported from such exporters as Australia, the European Union, and Canada. India’s upcoming harvest in March and April will alleviate some of the current tightness in supplies.

While a marginal player in the global market in 2023/24, India has made erratic moves in the global wheat market previously. India’s engagement in international trade has vacillated with its stock levels.

When stocks were robust in 2021/22, India quickly rose to become the seventh-largest exporter (accounting for 5 percent of global trade) as its prices became competitive following the start of the war in Ukraine. But when India’s production was lower than expected in 2022/23, the government imposed

an export ban on wheat grain, and exports of wheat and wheat products have since fallen sharply.

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