Russia Exports Record Wheat Volumes; Ukraine Exports Plummet

13.07.2023 07:00 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (July 2023), as the 2022/23 trade year (TY) draws to a close, Russia has solidified its standing as the world’s top wheat exporter. With record production of 92.0 million tons, Russia total wheat supply exceeded 100.0 million tons for the first time.

With ample supplies, no export restriction for the entire year, and competitive prices, Russia is estimated to export 45.5 million tons in 2022/23.

Its primary destinations are in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia.

In 2023/24, Russia’s wheat crop is forecast lower at 85.0 million tons. However, large carryin stocks will ensure that Russia wheat supplies remain over 100.0 million tons for the second year in a row. With import demand remaining strong in many of Russia’s top markets - including Egypt, Iran, and Algeria, Russia - wheat exports are forecast to reach another record of 47.5 million tons in 2023/24.

Conversely, Ukraine planted area is down significantly as a result of the war with Russia. Production in 2023/24 is forecast at 17.5 million tons, the smallest crop in over a decade. With sharply reduced supplies and uncertainty surrounding the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), 2023/24 Ukraine wheat exports are forecast lower at 10.5 million tons, down over 40 percent from the pre-war average (2016/17–2020/21). While the BSGI helped Ukraine export 16.8 million tons of wheat in 2022/23, 39 percent of wheat moved outside of the grain corridor (primarily via land shipments to Eastern Europe).

Ukraine export destinations shifted dramatically from Asia and North Africa before the war to primarily Europe during the war, mostly due to ease of shipment and increased demand in some EU member states because of drought.

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