World coffee production for 2017/18 is forecast 600,000 bags lower than the previous year to 159.9 million bags

02.01.2018 15:25 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA (December 2017) world coffee production for 2017/18 is forecast 600,000 bags lower than the previous year to 159.9 million bags (60 kilograms) as lower output in Brazil more than offsets record production in Vietnam.

With global consumption forecast at a record 158.5 million bags, ending inventories are expected to drop sharply to a 5-year low of 29.3 million bags. World exports are expected to slip primarily due to lower shipments from Brazil.

Brazil’s Arabica output is forecast to drop 6.8 million bags to 38.8 million. Production is expected to drop compared to the previous season since a majority of trees are in the off-year of the biennial production cycle. Also, coffee beans are smaller-than-anticipated in many areas of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. Robusta production, however, is expected to rebound by 1.9 million bags to 12.4 million.

Last year’s output plummeted to a 7-year low due to above-average temperatures and a prolonged dry spell in Espirito Santo, where a majority is grown.

The combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast down 4.9 million bags to 51.2 million. With consumption expected to continue rising to a record 22.2 million bags, ending stocks are forecast to drop by one-third to just 2.6 million bags. Exports are forecast to continue sliding to a 5-year low.

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