Within reporting week Ukrainian territory has been dominated by severe frosts which have made negative effect upon country grains market. First, frosty
weather has slowed domestic/export grains trade rates. Market operators admit within this week grains sale/purchase operations number was very low. In
AzovSea ports, grains were not shipped out due to sea icing. Second, significant part of Ukrainian grains sown areas isn’t ready to withstand such low
air temperature: condition of large areas of winter grains which have entered wintering phase is very weak, — so their chances to live through Feb
first days (expected to be distinguished with bottom low air temperature) are very meager.
As of now, 30–35% of Ukrainian winter grains areas are covered with snow layer below 10 cm, what isn’t sufficient to evade destruction. Kherson region,
Myckolayiv region, Odesa region, Donetsk region, Lugansk region, Sumy region, Kharkiv region, Dnipropetrovsk region, Vinnytsia region and AR of the
Crimea are considered most problematic Ukrainian regions.
Experts say 50% of Ukrainian winter grains areas are likely to be re-sown in spring. It is to be admitted, most agrarians are going to re-sow their
frost-stricken grains areas in spring with maize as they consider maize more attractive. As a result, Ukrainian maize-sown areas are possible to
enlarge to 4.3 mn ha in 2012 (up against 3.5 mn ha in 2011).
Ukrainian wheat output is possible to significantly decline in next MY, what can prompt country authorities to introduce, once again, export
limitation. Though Ukrainian Government hasn’t so far made any official declaration about possible wheat export limitation, but Canadian Wheat Board has put Ukraine into list of countries where grains export duties are likely to be introduced.
As to operative data, as of Feb 01/12, Ukraine has exported 11.44 mn MT grains, up 62.5% against Feb 01/11. Within Jan 2012 Ukraine has exported 1.92 mn MT grains (incl. maize — 1.38 mn MT, wheat — 0.47 mn MT and barley — 72,000 MT). However, it is to be admitted, within Jan 2012 Ukrainian grains
export rates were slackened mainly by New Year/Christmas holidays, railway cars lack and end month low air temperature.
As of Jan 25/12, Ukrainian companies have concluded export contracts for 4.49 mn MT wheat (incl. 4 mn MT food wheat/0.48 mn MT feed wheat), 2 mn MT
barley and 11.9 mn MT maize.
Barley
Within reporting week feed barley market remained slack; there was just small number of traders interested in feed barley purchasing. However, even
despite of that, feed barley purchase prices have slightly grown against previous week.
This week feed barley purchase prices ranged within UAH1,540–1,700 per MT, EXW-ex-elevator (depending on regions/lots) and UAH1,700–1,800 per MT, CPT
Black Sea ports (some purchasers payed even UAH1,850 per MT, CPT Black Sea ports).
As of this week, Ukrainian feed barley export prices have grown to US$265–275 per MT, FOB.
Wheat
Within reporting week feed wheat market situation remained same as within previous week.
As of this week, feed wheat purchase prices ranged within UAH1,450–1,600 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator)/ UAH1,600–1,700 per MT (CPT Black Sea/Azov Sea ports).
This week feed wheat export offer prices were US$245–250 per MT (demand — US$235–240 per MT).
Within this week food wheat market situation remained unchanged against previous week.
As of this week, 3 and 2 classes food wheat purchase prices were UAH1,560–1,710 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator) and UAH1,570–1,780 per MT
(EXW-ex-elevator).
At same time, exporters have fixed 3 and 2 classes food wheat purchase prices UAH1,720–1,900 per MT (CPT Black Sea/Azov Sea ports),
depending on quality and lots.
It is to be admitted, current Ukrainian weather conditions have prompted country wheat owners to decline their food wheat domestic market offer still
more down: agrarians believe that food wheat prices will continue growing and, as it seems, now all market factors create conditions for prices further
growth. Experts affirm Ukrainian domestic/export food wheat prices are quite possible to continue going up in near future (especially when taking into
account that global market prices now continue strengthening).
Maize
As earlier, within reporting week feed maize market remained highly active. Within this week domestic market maize purchase prices have boosted due to
global market prices growing trend and domestic market recent problems (railway cars lack, maize poor quality, contracts non-fulfillment). Thus, this
week EXW-ex-elevator basis prices have hoisted to UAH1,500–1,670 per MT; prices depended on shipments regions, contract conditions, seller status
(middleman or producer) and purchasers demand volumes.
On
CPT Black Sea/Azov Sea ports basis, feed maize purchase prices have grown to UAH1,730–1,850 per MT, depending on lots, quality and shipments urgency;
some purchasers
were ready to pay even UAH1,900 per MT (CPT Black Sea/Azov Sea ports) for big lots.
Within reporting week feed maize export prices fluctuated within US$255–265 per MT, FOB.
