Within last week number of trading companies eager to buy grains on domestic market was rather high. Within this week, however, there remained just few companies interested in grains purchases after Government has made more definite declarations on grains export quoting regime prolonging possibility.
So, within this week trading companies had to stop purchasing grains at current high prices in order to evade big risk of being unable to export it. However, at same time, domestic market grains average prices continued, upon whole, growing up even despite purchasers trying to force down sellers offer prices active growth and slack export demand. It is to be admitted, food wheat prices recent active growth has stimulated other grains prices strengthening: thus, within last 2–3 weeks rye/barley prices (which had been rising up rather slow as compared to other grains) have also significantly boosted.
▪ Within this week most grain holders were certain of grains prices further growth, so
they continued to withhold sales/raise offer prices. However, despite of that, experts expect prices will soon gradually stop boosting and get stabilized. Experts expectations are motivated with, firstly, Ukrainian grains export quoting regime prolonging possibility alongside with global market current prices significant decline and, secondly, spring sowing campaign approach (time when grains sale prices see slight seasonal decline due to offer growth).
▪ It is to be admitted, there is another important factor, — that is, condition of winter grains sown areas after wintering, — which can either stabilize or, vice versa, push down market prices in near future.
EXPORT
Barley
As earlier, within reporting week feed barley market trade activity remained low due to processors slack demand; it is to be admitted, no trader made feed barley purchases after export quoting regime introduction.
Within this week feed barley market purchase prices remained unchanged against previous week, — UAH1,870–2,000 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, depending on lots/regions).
Within reporting week feed barley US$ purchase prices were US$280–290 per MT (FOB Black Sea big ports: Pivdenniy, Illichivsk, Odesa).
Wheat
Within reporting week feed wheat was purchased by just few traders. As of this week, feed wheat market offer prices have slightly grown, — to UAH1,800–1,900 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, depending on regions), up against last week.
Within this week feed wheat FOB basis export prices ranged within US$300–310 per MT.
As of this week, domestic market 3 and 2 classes food wheat prices were correspondingly UAH1,950–2,050 per MT and UAH2,000–2,150 per MT; at same time, 3 and 2 classes food wheat export prices (if global market prices conjuncture is taken into account) were correspondingly US$350–375 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports) and US$345–355 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports, depending on protein content).
Maize
Within reporting week feed maize market purchase prices fluctuated depending on shipments regions, contract conditions and seller status (middleman or producer), — UAH1,880–2,000 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator). It is to be admitted, traders were ready to pay UAH2,050–2,100 per MT in ports.
As of this week, feed maize export prices ranged within US$300–310 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports).
Wide ranges of above-mentioned feed maize prices are motivated by fact that trade companies have declared 2 purchase prices levels: high level (for agricultural producers) and low level (for middlemen) after new Ukrainian Tax Code having had recently come into force.
Grain export prices, USD/ò
Grain type
23.02.11
16.02.11
January
2011 average
December
2010 average
November
2010 average
Min
Max
Min
Max
FOB, Ukrainian Black Sea port
2nd class wheat*
350
375
350
375
330
308
298
3rd class wheat**
345
355
345
355
313
288
279
Feed wheat
300
310
300
310
276
247
244
Feed barley
280
290
280
290
265
255
253
Feed corn
300
310
300
310
278
248
249
Feed peas
310
340
310
340
317
294
276
Wheat bran
215
230
215
230
191
181
183
Oats
220
230
220
230
209
192
186
DAF
Feed corn
255
265
255
265
249
235
233
Rye
215
230
215
230
208
194
180
*- protein content: minimum 12.5%
**- protein content: minimum 11.0%
Processors Activity
Within reporting week processors continued raising up 2 class/3 class wheat purchase prices; highest purchase prices were registered in western regions.
As earlier, within this week grain holders continued withholding their food wheat reserves in anticipation for maximum prices. Flour milling integrated plants experts admit within this week it was impossible for them to buy even 3 class wheat due to high prices. In fact, within this week mainly private mills and trading companies could allow themselves to buy wheat at current market offer prices. As a result, within this week number of big flour milling integrated plants which had to suspend grains resources purchases and start working on give-and-take basis was gradually growing up.
Experts expect agricultural producers will raise their wheat offer within Mar as they will start getting ready to spring sowing campaign. Besides, Agrarian Fund (Ukrainian domestic grains market biggest operator) is also going to enter market soon. Thus, Government will be able to stabilize domestic flour market situation and liquidate negative consequences of flour millers work suspension. After that, say experts, flour prices can start declining; experts admit this year grains crop forecast will be one more factor to influence flour prices.
In meanwhile, so far flour millers situation is rather hard.
Average purchase prices for food grains (ÑÐÒ processing plant), UAH/ò
Region
23.02.11
16.02.11
January
2011 average
December
2010 average
November
2010 average
Min
Max
Min
Max
2nd class wheat*
Western
2000
2100
1900
2050
1735
1690
1660
Northern
2000
2120
1950
2100
1765
1720
1700
Central
2000
2150
1950
2100
1760
1705
1680
Southern
2000
2150
2000
2100
1760
1700
1690
Eastern
2000
2150
1950
2120
1775
1725
1720
3rd class wheat**
Western
1950
2050
1850
1950
1675
1610
1590
Northern
1920
2100
1900
2000
1695
1635
1590
Central
1950
2100
1900
2000
1690
1625
1600
Southern
2000
2100
1900
2050
1700
1645
1600
Eastern
1950
2100
1900
2050
1695
1635
1630
*- protein content: minimum 12.5%
**- protein content: minimum 11.0%
