AGRO PERSPECTIVE «AGRO+ MILK UKRAINE #54 February 17, 2011.
As to State Statistics Committee data, within Jan 2011 total Ukrainian milk output has declined to 563,900 MT, down 1.9% against Jan 2010. As of Jan 2011, agricultural companies have produced 153,700 MT milk (population individual economies — 410,000 MT milk). In Jan 2011, despite total Ukrainian milk output shortening, population individual economies’ milk output has grown by 2.1% against Jan 2010.
As of Feb 01/11, Ukrainian all categories companies’ cattle number totaled 4,594.800 heads, down 6.3% against Feb 01/10.
As to Committee, as of Feb 01/11, Ukrainian all categories companies’ cows number totaled 2,639.900 heads, down 3.5% against Feb 01/10 (incl. agricultural companies — 588,540 heads, down 2.6% as of Feb 01/10 and population individual economies — 2,051.400 heads, down 3.8% against Feb 01/10).
As to State Inspection for Prices Control data, as of Feb 10/10, average retail sale price for bulk milk 2.5% fat sold on Ukrainian food markets was UAH6,58 per kg (sour cream 20% fat — UAH27,10 per kg; fermented cheese 9% fat — UAH25,64 per kg; butter 72% fat — UAH52,07 per kg).
As to Inspection, as of Feb 10/10, average retail sale price for bulk milk 2.5% fat sold in Ukrainian retail sale network shops was UAH6,32 per kg (sour cream 20% fat — UAH16,87 per kg; fermented cheese 9% fat — UAH33,36 per kg; butter 72% fat — UAH53,49 per kg).
As to State Statistics Committee data, within Jan 2011 producers’ average sale price for processed milk was UAH5,09 per kg (milk/cream powder — UAH23,16 per kg; butter (up to 85% fat) — UAH43,55 per kg); hard cheeses — UAH40,05 per kg; non-flavored kefir — UAH5,60 per kg; non-flavored sour cream — UAH13,96 per kg).
MILK POWDER
Within reporting week SMP domestic market offer prices have declined to UAH26–28 per kg, down against last week UAH28–30 per kg. Some small SMP lots were sold UAH28–29 per kg.
As of this week, SMP export price equaled to US$3,200 per MT (for non-CIS countries), US$3,300 per MT (for Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan) and US$3,800 per MT (for RF).
Within this week domestic market WMP offer was quite sufficient, resulting in WMP prices having lowered to UAH34–35 per kg (down against last week UAH35–37 per kg).
As of this week, WMP export price has also declined, — down to US$3,850 per MT.
BUTTER
Within reporting week Ukrainian Government has declared Ukraine will import 15,000 MT Belarus-made butter to Ukraine. This declaration is nothing but trying to introduce manual control over Ukrainian domestic market butter prices if they start growing. However, so far our country domestic market butter prices are going down due to low demand/unsold butter rather big reserves. Besides, experts say there will be an early spring this year, so country cows’ milk yields will soon start significantly growing, while dairy producers will begin to actively dry milk, — what will lead to domestic market butter prices further decline. So, experts admit it is just senseless now to import expensive Belarus-made butter to Ukraine (it is also to be taken into account that within end 2010 Ukrainian companies had already tried to import butter/milk powder from Belarus and Poland, but those market operations appeared to be unsuccessful).
Within reporting week butter 72.5% fat domestic market prices have declined to UAH38–40 per kg (down against previous week UAH39–41 per kg).
Within this week Ukrainian butter average export price equaled to US$4,200 per MT.
CHEESES
Within reporting week domestic cheese market remained stable, with domestic/export markets’ sale rates being rather high. In meanwhile, market players suggest Ukrainian cheese output will significantly decline in near future, resulting in country cheese reserves’ shortening (what in turn will cause whey deficit and corresponding whey prices’ boost).
As of this week, cheeses 50% fat domestic market offer prices remained UAH42–48 per kg (unchanged against last week). It is to be admitted, there were rather large spreads between prices of same kind of cheese depending on producers, regions, unsold cheese amounts remained on warehouses and cheese quality.
As of this week, cheeses 50% fat export prices ranged within US$5,500–5,800 per MT.
WHEY
Ukrainian Jan 2011 cheese output has declined by 7.5% against Dec 2010, resulting in domestic market whey deficit. Though domestic whey consumption has grown up just slightly, importers’ demand has risen quite considerably, — what resulted in whey domestic/export prices’ boost.
As of this week, domestic market whey sale prices ranged within UAH8,2–8,5 per kg; this week whey export prices were US$850–900 per MT.
Within this week domestic market demineralized whey prices ranged within UAH9,5–10,0 per kg; demineralized whey export prices fluctuated within US$1,000–1,100 per MT.
CASEIN
Within reporting week Ukrainian domestic casein reserves remained, as earlier, almost exhausted; domestic casein trade was carried out in just small lots.
Within this week domestic market casein prices ranged within UAH70–73 per kg.
There was no casein export within this week. As of this week, casein export offer prices fluctuated within US$9,000–9,200 per MT.
Ukrainian dairy products’ export prices (US$ per MT)
