AGRO PERSPECTIVE «AGRO+ MILK UKRAINE #46 December 16, 2010.
As to State Statistics Committee report, Ukrainian Nov 2010 milk output totaled 777,900 MT (incl. agricultural companies — 151,300 MT and population individual economies — 626,600 MT).
As to Committee, Ukrainian Nov 2010 milk output is down 15% against Oct 2010, but up 0.5% as of Nov 2009 (774,100 MT).
Reportedly, Ukrainian Jan-Nov 2010 milk gross output totaled 10,590.800 MT, down 3.2% against Jan-Nov 2009.
Within Jan-Nov 2010 Ukrainian agricultural companies have produced 2,073.600 MT milk, down 0.6% against Jan-Nov 2009 (population individual economies — 8,517.200 MT, down 3.8% as of Jan-Nov 2009).
Within Jan-Nov 2010 Ukrainian agricultural companies’ average milk yield was 3,725 kg, up 1.6% against 2009 similar (population individual economies — 3,952 kg, down 0.6% as of 2009 similar).
Reportedly, as of this year Dec 1, Ukrainian agricultural companies owned 586,400 cows, down 3.8% against last year Dec 1 (population individual economies — 2,119.400 cows, down 3% as of last year Dec 1). It is to be admitted, these indexes mean rather significant decline of Ukrainian cows’ number. Experts affirm cows’ number is likely to continue declining after agrarians will switch to new system of subsidies’ payments per 1 cow head.
Within this week Ukrainian dairy products’ market was characterized with cheeses and whey domestic/external sales’ slight growth. However, this week milk powder and butter trade remained, as earlier, slack. On Ukrainian domestic market, home-made butter has become uncompetitive against EU-made similar. As of this week, Ukraine didn’t export SMP/casein due to external markets’ zero low demand.
SMP
Within this week domestic market high-quality SMP offer prices remained UAH22–25 per kg (low-quality — UAH20–22 per kg), same as within last week.
As of this week, SMP export prices for non-CIS countries ranged within US$2,550–2,650 per MT. It is to be admitted, within this week RF-made SMP export price was US$4,000 per MT (Belarus-made SMP export price was US$3,800 per MT). That’s why Ukraine was selling its SMP to Middle Asian countries (in part., Kazakhstan) at US$3,100–3,400 per MT within this week.
WMP
Within reporting week Ukrainian domestic/export markets’ WMP prices remained same as within previous week: UAH35–37 per kg (domestic) and US$3,700–3,800 per MT (export).
BUTTER
Within reporting week butter 72.5% fat domestic market prices have slightly grown as State Committee for Material Reserves (State Reserve) has started butter purchasing in order to form State reserves.
Within this week Ukrainian butter export rates were very low; companies exported mainly packaged butter. It is to be admitted, Ukrainian butter export has become unattractive: taking into account domestic market prices, butter 72.5% fat average export price should have already risen to US$5,000–5,200 per MT. However, it is simply senseless to sell butter at these prices.
CHEESES
As to Ukrainian traders/producers data, within reporting week domestic market cheese sale rates have slightly grown against previous week due to retailers having had fulfilled Ukrainian Antimonopoly Committee demand to decline hard cheese retail sale prices. Therefore, total Ukrainian domestic market hard cheese retail sale prices have been declined averagely by 10–15%. In Dnipropetrovsk region/Khmelnytskiy region hard cheese retail sale prices have been lowered averagely by 15% (in Kharkiv region, Lugansk region, Odesa region and Chernighiv region — averagely by 10%).
Besides, in response to Committee demand, Ukrainian biggest retail sale networks (Metro Cash & Carry Ukraine Ltd, OJSC ATB-Market,Pacco-Holding Ltd, Eko Ltd, Foodmarket Ltd, AuchanUkraine Ltd, Adventis Ltd and CJSC Furshet) have assumed obligations to establish economically justified retail sale prices and conclude direct contracts with cheeses’ producers.
Within this year Nov Ukrainian hard cheese output has sagged by 25.8%, down to 15,200 MT, — what has prompted experts to forecast that this market segment balance will soon get equalized. Now, however, producers’ warehouses unsold hard cheese reserves remain, as earlier, rather big.
Within this week cheeses 50% fat domestic market offer prices remained UAH42–48 per kg (unchanged against last week). It is to be admitted, there were rather large spreads between prices of same kind of cheese depending on producer, region and cheese amounts remained on warehouses: thus, some producers declared even UAH38–40 per kg offer prices.
As of this week, Ukrainian cheeses’ export sales have also grown: each Jan, global cheese market traditionally remains totally inert, so world importers have already started actively purchasing Ukrainian cheeses within this year Dec.
Within reporting week cheeses 50% fat export prices ranged within US$5,500–5,600 per MT.
WHEY
Within reporting week domestic whey market was rather active; prices were growing up. It is to be admitted, experts say whey prices will continue growing until yearend.
As of this week, home market whey prices have risen to UAH7,5–8,0 per kg (up as of last week UAH6,8–7,2 per kg).
Within this week whey export offer prices have declined against last week, — to US$780–820 per MT (down as of last week US$850–870 per MT).
Within this week domestic market demineralized whey prices have improved to UAH8,8–9,0 per kg (up as of last week UAH8,6–8,8 per kg); demineralized whey export prices remained, as earlier, US$920–950 per MT.
CASEIN
Within reporting week domestic casein market situation remained same as within previous week. As earlier, Ukrainian domestic casein reserves remained exhausted. Within this week casein domestic/external markets’ sales were minimal low.
As of this week, domestic market casein prices fluctuated within UAH58–60 per kg.
There was no casein export within this week. As of this week, casein export offer prices ranged within US$7,400–7,500 per MT.
Ukrainian dairy products’ export prices (US$ per MT)
