As earlier, within reporting week domestic grains market trade activity remained low/slack. Processors (flour millers and mixed feeds plants) were market main players.
In meanwhile, grains export quotas reception long process makes it impossible for traders to get back to grains market in near future: thus, Government had issued grains export licensing/quoting introduction Decree still on Oct 04/10, but today, on Nov 24/10 (that is, in about 50 days), export licenses have been given to just few companies.
In our opinion, within next few months Ukrainian grains market situation will most likely remain relatively stable due to following factors:
- export-oriented companies have already accumulated significant grains reserves, so they won’t actively purchase grains even if grains export limitations are removed since 2011 beginning;
— after grains export quoting regime ending, traders will take into account all their financial losses caused by present grains export limitation. Thus, grain holders mustn’t wait for grains purchase prices significant growth after grains export limitation canceling;
— agrarians have already earned sufficiently well on rape, sunseeds and feed grains (feed wheat, feed barley) sales, so they won’t start their grains reserves large-scale sales at current prices. However, the only exception is feed maize — agrarians are ready to sell it now as not all of them have maize storage facilities.
EXPORT
Barley
As earlier, within reporting week feed barley market remained actually dead.
As of this week, feed barley purchase prices ranged within UAH1,600–1,680 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, central/southern regions)/UAH1,550–1,650 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, other regions). As earlier, no trader made feed barley purchases due to grains quoting regime recent introduction.
Within reporting week feed barley US$ purchase prices were US$245–255 per MT (FOB Black Sea big ports: Pivdenniy, Illichivsk, Odesa).
Wheat
Within reporting week traders didn’t make any feed wheat purchases. As of this week, feed wheat offer prices remained UAH1,500–1,600 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator), unchanged against previous week.
As of this week, feed wheat FOB basis export prices were about US$235–245 per MT.
There was no food wheat trade within reporting week. As of this week, 3 and 2 classes food wheat declarative export prices (if global market prices conjuncture is taken into account) were correspondingly US$270–280 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports) and US$280–305 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports).
Maize
Within this week feed maize purchase prices remained unchanged against previous week, — UAH1,500–1,650 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, depending on regions/contract conditions).
As of this week, feed maize export prices ranged within US$235–250 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports).
Grain export prices, USD/ò
Grain type
24.11.10
17.11.10
Octember
2010 average
September
2010 average
August
2010 average
Min
Max
Min
Max
FOB, Ukrainian Black Sea port
2nd class wheat*
280
305
280
305
294
287
256
3rd class wheat**
270
280
270
280
274
267
241
Feed wheat
235
245
235
245
242
230
222
Feed barley
245
255
245
255
254
240
234
Feed corn
235
250
235
250
251
234
202
Feed peas
265
280
265
280
276
269
256
Wheat bran
170
183
175
185
187
150
120
Oats
180
190
180
190
181
162
144
DAF
Feed corn
220
230
220
230
234
218
191
Rye
175
185
175
185
179
168
156
*- protein content: minimum 12.5%
**- protein content: minimum 11.0%
Processors Activity
Processors admit this week hasn’t brought any surprises: as earlier, they continued purchasing grains in small lots at previously fixed prices.
In meanwhile, experts affirm this market sector situation is expected to remain mainly unchanged in near future.
Within reporting week food wheat market offer remained very slack, with offer prices somewhat overrated. Most flour millers couldn’t raise their purchase prices up to current market as they experienced financial difficulties.
Average purchase prices for food grains (ÑÐÒ processing plant), UAH/ò
Region
24.11.10
17.11.10
Octember
2010 average
September
2010 average
August
2010 average
Min
Max
Min
Max
2nd class wheat*
Western
1600
1750
1580
1730
1635
1510
1440
Northern
1620
1800
1600
1800
1660
1555
1500
Central
1620
1750
1600
1750
1665
1540
1520
Southern
1650
1750
1630
1750
1675
1570
1600
Eastern
1650
1800
1630
1800
1715
1605
1550
3rd class wheat**
Western
1550
1650
1520
1650
1575
1450
1385
Northern
1550
1660
1520
1650
1585
1460
1410
Central
1550
1670
1550
1650
1600
1480
1470
Southern
1560
1670
1550
1650
1600
1505
1540
Eastern
1570
1700
1550
1700
1625
1530
1470
*- protein content: minimum 12.5%
**- protein content: minimum 11.0%
