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Ukrainian Grain Market

AGRO PERSPECTIVE «Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market » November 5-11, 2010`44`(298)

As earlier, within reporting week flour millers remained main market participants interested in food wheat purchases; export-oriented companies didn’t make any food wheat  purchases.             
            In northern/eastern regions, food wheat minimal purchase price growth tendency appeared due to food wheat deficit.
Within this week feed wheat purchase prices remained as high as earlier due to low offer/processors stable demand. It is to be admitted, difference between food wheat/feed wheat purchase prices remained small within this week, so agrarians tried to abstain from food wheat sales in anticipation for next year spring prices growth. 
In meanwhile, grains export quotas obtaining procedure problems have been gradually removed, so exporters may again reckon on grains export resumption and earlier concluded contracts fulfillment. Besides, grains-loaded vessels which had been remaining on ports roadsteads were allowed to leave ports for their destinations; however, exporters still don’t know whether it is necessary to obtain export licenses for these vessels grains, — that is, whether these vessels grains volumes should be considered within grains export quotas framework or not. 
Within this week export-oriented companies were quite reluctant to resume domestic grains purchases as they had already invested significant financial means into grains remaining unsold on domestic elevators/port terminals. 
 In meanwhile, grains export quoting introduction continues making impact on domestic economy: thus, within this week Ukrainian economy many branches have also felt , due to domino principle, grains export quoting negative influence. For instance, Nibulon (one of Ukrainian grains biggest exporters) has suspended river vessels and elevators construction project financing within this week due to circulating assets deficit,  — what will soon result in project workers salary payments delays, construction concrete and metal purchases suspension, etc.. So, grains export quoting introduction has yielded both positive and negative results: on one hand, Ukrainian domestic grains/grains processing products prices growth has slightly slowed; on other hand, however, Ukraine fails to receive huge money amounts which could be invested into economy different branches development.

EXPORT

  • Barley 

Within reporting week not numerous free feed barley owners readily made prices discounts due to demand absence. As of this week, feed barley purchase prices ranged within UAH1,600–1,680 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, central/southern regions)/UAH1,550–1,650 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, other regions). As earlier, no trader made feed barley purchases due to grains quoting regime recent introduction.
As of this week, feed barley US$ purchase prices were US$250–260 per MT (FOB Black Sea  big ports: Pivdenniy, Illichivsk, Odesa).

  • Wheat  

Within reporting week traders didn’t make any feed wheat purchases. As of this week, feed wheat offer prices remained UAH1,500–1,600 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator), unchanged against previous week.                      
As of this week, feed wheat FOB basis export prices ranged within US$235–250 per MT. 
There was no food wheat trade within reporting week. As of this week, 3 and 2 classes food wheat declarative export prices (if global market prices conjuncture is taken into account) were correspondingly US$275–290 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports) and US$290–315 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports).  

Maize  

Within this week traders were ready to purchase feed maize at UAH1,520–1,650 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, depending on regions/contract conditions).                    
As of this week, feed maize UAH purchase prices were UAH1,700–1,750 per MT (CPT port)/US$250–260 per MT (FOB Black Sea ports).

Grain export prices, USD/ò

Grain type

10.11.10

03.11.10

October
2010 average

September
2010 average

August
2010 average

Min

Max

Min

Max

FOB, Ukrainian Black Sea port

2nd class wheat*

290

315

290

315

294

287

256

3rd class wheat**

275

290

275

290

274

267

241

Feed wheat

240

255

240

255

242

230

222

Feed barley

250

260

250

260

254

240

234

Feed corn

250

260

250

260

251

234

202

Feed peas

270

290

270

290

276

269

256

Wheat bran

180

195

180

195

187

150

120

Oats

180

195

180

195

181

162

144

DAF

Feed corn

235

245

235

245

234

218

191

Rye

175

185

175

185

179

168

156

*- protein content: minimum 12.5%
**- protein content: minimum 11.0%

Processors Activity     

As earlier, within reporting week domestic grains market remained in uncertain state: all market participants waited for export quotas distribution ending and subsequent grains market prices conjuncture change. Most processors believed that Ukrainian grains export limitation canceling (to start after since new year beginning) will result in domestic market wheat prices growth. Grain holders were of same opinion, so within this week they remained  quite reluctant to sell their wheat reserves at current prices. As a result, many flour millers found it utterly difficult to buy necessary wheat lots in order to replenish their reserves.
Within this week those flour milling integrated plants which urgently needed grains have significantly raised their purchase prices, but even despite of that they couldn’t buy grains sufficient volumes; all other integrated plants, however, kept their purchase prices unchanged as of previous week.

Average purchase prices for food grains (ÑÐÒ processing plant), UAH/ò

Region

10.11.10

03.11.10

October
2010 average

September
2010 average

August
2010 average

Min

Max

Min

Max

2nd class wheat*

Western

1580

1730

1580

1730

1635

1510

1440

Northern

1600

1800

1600

1800

1660

1555

1500

Central

1600

1750

1600

1750

1665

1540

1520

Southern

1630

1750

1630

1750

1675

1570

1600

Eastern

1630

1800

1630

1800

1715

1605

1550

3rd class wheat**

Western

1520

1650

1520

1650

1575

1450

1385

Northern

1520

1650

1520

1650

1585

1460

1410

Central

1550

1650

1550

1650

1600

1480

1470

Southern

1550

1650

1550

1650

1600

1505

1540

Eastern

1550

1700

1550

1700

1625

1530

1470

*- protein content: minimum 12.5%
**- protein content: minimum 11.0%

30.11.2010


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