Agro Perspectiva

Global soybean production in 2022/23 is forecast at a record 394.7 MMT

31.05.2022 12:51 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (May 2022), Global soybean production in 2022/23 is forecast at a record 394.7 million tons, up 13 percent from 2021/22. Likewise, soybean production in Brazil and the United States is forecast at a record, continuing the trend of higher-concentrated production in exporting countries. If realized, year-over-year soybean

production will expand by the largest amount in over a decade, predominantly on higher yields in South America following this year’s drought. Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay account for more than 85 percent of production gains on both expanded planted area and higher yields. Soybean planted acres in Brazil are expected to grow for the 17th consecutive year, as high prices and a favorable exchange rate enhance producer returns despite high fertilizer prices. Plantings in the United States are currently forecast to be a record as some farmers displace corn plantings due to high input costs.

Driven by expanding production, global soybean supplies will likely reach record levels. Export demand will continue to be led by China, which is projected to account for more than 50 percent of global trade growth while rebounding from this year’s slowing imports. Export growth is forecast to outpace crush in in the top three exporter countries in 2022/23 for the first time in 3 years on larger supplies and demand from China. More ample supplies are expected in exporter countries in 2022/23 and are responsible for the stronger growth in disappearance. Soybean stocks in the top three exporter countries on September 30, 2023 are expected to rise by 30 percent versus the previous year but remain well-below the 5-year average. China ending stocks are expected to grow much more modestly but remain at record levels.

Global soybean meal consumption is projected to rise 3 percent in 2022/23, a recovery from the slight downtick forecast for this year. China is expected to account for half of global consumption growth after a year of weaker soybean meal consumption. Exports are set to rise in line with consumption on a rebound in South America crush following improved soybean production prospects and higher U.S. supplies. Argentina’s share of global trade is projected to fall in 2022/23, while Paraguay, China, and the United States are forecast to see the largest growth in exports. Meal exports from Brazil and the United States are forecast well-above the 5-year average as production gains are forecast to outpace domestic demand growth.

Soybean oil consumption is projected to rise 2 percent, mostly on the strength of China food use demand and higher U.S. renewable diesel production. Global exports are forecast to rise 4 percent in 2022/23 with total global volume projected at a record 12.7 million tons. Export growth is likely to be driven by South America on production gains outpacing domestic consumption growth and reduced competition from the United States due to high domestic industrial usage. Remaining export growth is likely to come from European countries to offset reduced sunflowerseed oil trade in the region due to the conflict in Ukraine.