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World Bank revises Ukkrainian GDP fall forecast for 2015 downward to 12%
23.09.2015 11:19 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
"We expect real GDP to decline by 12% in 2015, with a stronger contraction during the first half of the year, followed by a slowing decline during the second half of the year due to the low statistical base (given the deep decline during the second half of 2014)," NRCU says quoting the World Bank report.
As to the report, the decline touches many sectors, especially the metal and mining sector which suffered from the conflict most of all. It is likely that the retail trade situation will worsen due to the large fall in the real income of population caused by the sharp increase in tariffs, large devaluation of the currency, and a decline in real wages.
Reportedly, problems in the banking sector are expected to continue.
Combined with tighter liquidity in line with monetary policy objectives, this will imply a further contraction of credit during 2015 by 4%.
Besides, the World Bank also expects that the countrys State debt will grow from 70.3% of GDP to 93.5% of GDP with a gradual decrease to 81.1% of GDP in the next three years. Ukraines gross foreign debt could expand to 156.7% of GDP in 2015, and it could decrease to 126.8% of GDP by 2018.
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