2024/25 Grain Consumption Expands while Trade Moderates
11.05.2024 18:55 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Global corn production is forecast to decline primarily on smaller crops in Argentina, Ukraine, and the United States. Trade is also forecast to decrease slightly on flat or lower supplies from several exporters. Global consumption of corn for feed is forecast up while non-feed use is down modestly. With consumption fractionally higher than production, ending stocks are forecast fractionally down, with larger stocks in China and the United States but lower stocks in Ukraine, India, and Brazil. The global wheat outlook is for record production and consumption, but lower trade and contracting ending stocks. Production is projected to increase with larger crops in India, China, Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, Pakistan, and the United States more than offsetting declines for the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. Global trade will contract with less demand from Pakistan and the European Union. Exports are forecast to decline, particularly for Ukraine. Higher food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use somewhat offsets lower feed and residual use. Ending stocks are forecast to decrease, with smaller stocks especially in Russia. Global rice production is forecast at a record with larger production in Asia, especially on record crops in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan along with an improved crop in China. Global consumption is expected to rise to a new record, primarily from strong growth in India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. Global trade is forecast unchanged with India remaining the top exporter despite ongoing trade restrictions. Forecasts for Thailand and Vietnam — the next largest exporters — are down due to less demand from Indonesia where production is forecast to rebound. Global stocks are forecast up, with larger stocks in China and Vietnam. AGRO PERSPECTIVA offers Agro + «Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market» weekly analytical bulletin. Concerning subscription please contact: client@agroperspectiva.com or +380675964652 (WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram).
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