Oilseeds Stocks Forecast to Reach Record Highs in 2024/25
11.05.2024 18:47 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Global oilseed production in 2024/25 is projected at a new record of 687 million tons, up 4 percent compared to the 2023/24 marketing year. This boost is driven by higher soybean output in South America and the United States. World soybean production is forecast to rise over 25 million tons (over 6 percent) to 422 million. Global rapeseed production is almost unchanged as gains in Canada, Australia, and China are forecast to offset declines in the European Union, Ukraine, and India. World sunflowerseed production is projected to grow modestly as gains in Ukraine and the European Union slightly outpace reductions for Argentina and Russia. Other oilseeds such as cottonseed, peanut, and palm kernel seed are also projected to grow slightly, while copra is forecast to decline. Global oilseed consumption is forecast to rise 3 percent in 2024/25, driven by soybean crush recovery in Argentina, growing feed demand in China, as well as rising demand for soybean oil in the United States. Global oilseeds crush is projected at nearly 561 million tons with China, the United States, Brazil, the European Union, and Argentina driving gains. Soybean crush and consumption are projected to account for most of the growth in global oilseed use. Global rapeseed crush is forecast unchanged as gains in Canada and the European Union are offset by reductions in China, Ukraine, and India. Global sunflowerseed processing is expected slightly lower as reductions in Argentina and Ukraine are not fully offset by gains in the European Union and Russia. Global oilseed trade is forecast up 4 percent with higher soybean and rapeseed demand more than offsetting lower sunflowerseed imports. Continuing expansion of soybean planted area in South America will likely pressure soybean prices in 2024/25 and encourage more imports in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. The European Union is projected to import more rapeseed while imports of sunflowerseed will be curbed by lower supplies in the Black Sea region. Soybean exports from Brazil are projected at a new record and will account for 58 percent of global trade. Although U.S. exports are forecast to rise compared to the current marketing year, market share is expected at only 28 percent, below the 5-year average. AGRO PERSPECTIVA offers Agro + “Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market” weekly analytical bulletin. Concerning subscription please contact: client@agroperspectiva.com or +380675964652 (WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram).
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