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World coffee production for 2024/25 is forecast to rebound 7.1 million bags

01.07.2024 08:39 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — World coffee production for 2024/25 is forecast to rebound 7.1 million bags from the previous year to 176.2 million due primarily to continued recovery in Brazil and rebounding output in Indonesia. With additional supplies, global exports are expected up 3.6 million bags to 123.1 million primarily on strong

shipments from Indonesia and Brazil. Consumption is seen 3.1 million bags higher to 170.6 million.

Ending stocks are expected to rise 1.9 million bags to 25.8 million following 3 years of decline.

Vietnam production is forecast nearly unchanged at 29.0 million bags, with over 95 percent of total output remaining as Robusta. The rainy season was slightly delayed and above average temperatures were recorded in many areas, adversely affecting yields. Similar conditions lowered yields and output

the previous 2 harvests. Bean exports are forecast to drop nearly 500,000 bags to 24.4 million due to reduced total supply and rising domestic consumption.

Reduced groundwater and forest cover pose long term challenges as many coffee growers in Vietnam rely on wells for irrigation and forest cover helps slow evaporation. In response, the provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Development and Western Highland Agriculture and Forest Science

Institute have implemented strategies to encourage sustainable coffee production. These plans include replacing old coffee trees with new varieties, intercropping to increase shade and water retention, adopting water saving irrigation systems, and helping coffee farmers certify their farms for sustainable practices. According to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development statistics, approximately 30 percent of coffee area has been certified to meet sustainability standards. For more information, read the Coffee Annual Report — 2024 from FAS Post in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Brazil combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast up 3.6 million bags to 69.9 million in 2024/25. Arabica output is forecast to improve 3.3 million bags to 48.2 million and the Robusta harvest is expected to rebound 300,000 bags to 21.7 million. High temperatures at the end of 2023 caused some cherries to drop during the fruit-forming stage, but subsequent adequate precipitation provided ideal conditions for the final stage of fruit development and yields were boosted. With higher supplies, coffee bean exports are forecast up 1.0 million bags to 42.5 million and ending stocks are expected to rise

nearly 700,000 bags to 3.5 million.

Colombia Arabica production is forecast up 200,000 bags to 12.4 million on slightly higher yields, though yields are expected below recent highs due to increased rates of coffee cherry borer insect infestations.

Bean exports, mostly to the United States and European Union, are forecast up 200,000 bags to 10.8 million on higher supplies.

Central America and Mexico production is forecast 300,000 bags higher to 16.6 million, with Arabica accounting for 95 percent of output. Nicaragua is expected nearly 300,000 bags higher to 2.7 million, while Mexico is expected to gain just 30,000 bags to 3.9 million. Production is expected flat in Costa

Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Panama. Bean exports for the region are forecast up 500,000 bags to 13.4 million, fueled by slightly higher supplies and an expected drawdown of stocks.

Indonesia combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast to rebound nearly 2.8 million bags to 10.9 million. Robusta output is expected to recover 2.7 million bags to 9.5 million on favorable growing conditions in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java where approximately 75 percent is grown. Last year’s crop suffered from excessive rain during cherry development and caused sub-optimal conditions for pollination. Arabica production is seen rising slightly to 1.4 million bags. Elevated output is expected to translate to exports gaining 2.2 million bags to 6.5 million.

Agro Perspectiva

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01.07.2024

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