Homepage  Homepage     Search on site  Search on site     To write the letter  To write the letter     Site map  Site map
Agro Perspectiva
We are on: 
   
 


Home > News > News

Despite a cut in world cereal production, this years forecast output remains an all-time high

09.11.2020 10:48 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) Further cuts in world cereal production forecasts this month for maize, wheat, and, to a lesser extent, rice, amidst a faster pace in exports in response to strong global import demand, are seen to result in lower inventories, especially among the major exporters.

FAOs forecast for 2020 world cereal production is reduced for a second consecutive month, by nearly 13 million tonnes, largely on expectations of diminished world coarse grains production. Despite the downward revisions, global cereal output is still forecast at a record 2 750 million tonnes, surpassing the 2019 output by 1.6 percent. This months 10.1 million tonnes cut to the world coarse grains production forecast is driven by lowered maize production forecasts in the European Union (EU) and Ukraine, where continued adverse weather has further reduced yield prospects, as well as in the United States of America (USA) on a smaller acreage. The global wheat production forecast for 2020 is also trimmed by 2.3 million tonnes and now stands at 762.7 million tonnes, just short of the 2016 record level. This reduction largely rests on lower output expectations in Ukraine, as well as in Argentina, where persistent dry weather curtailed yield prospects. By contrast, world rice production in 2020 is forecast to increase by 1.5 percent year-on-year to a new record of 508.7 million tonnes. This level stands slightly (0.4 million tonnes) below October expectations, as somewhat less pessimistic prospects for output in Indonesia were outweighed by downgrades to production in Myanmar and Nigeria, in both cases reflecting the adverse impact of weather on main-crop output. Planting of the 2021 winter wheat crop has begun in the northern hemisphere. Encouraged by higher prices, farmers are expected to expand plantings in several main producing countries, notably in the EU where production could rebound in 2021 from the low outturn this year. In the USA, 2021 winter wheat planting is progressing at a generally quick pace and the sown area is expected to remain broadly unchanged on a yearly basis. However, a continuation of reduced rainfall in the southern and central parts of the Great Plains could curb yields. Similarly, scarce precipitation in the Russian Federation might stifle early crop development, while low soil moisture levels in Ukraine could lead to below-average planted area. In Asia, remunerative prices and generally ample agricultural input supplies are expected to sustain above-average wheat acreages in China, India and Pakistan.

World total cereal utilization in 2020/21 is forecast to reach 2 745 million tonnes, up marginally since October and 1.9 percent higher than in 2019/20. The forecast for total wheat utilization in 2020/21 is scaled up slightly this month, mostly on increased consumption expected in the EU, raising the global forecast to 758 million tonnes, up 1.0 percent from the 2019/20 level. Upward revisions for the feed use of coarse grains this month are balanced by lowered demand for non-food uses, keeping the coarse grains utilization forecast for 2020/21 unchanged from last month at 1 477 million tonnes, up 2.6 percent from 2019/20, driven largely by increased feed use. Fuelled by expanding food use, global rice utilization in 2020/21 is predicted to reach 510 million tonnes, also barely changed since October, but up 1.5 percent from the 2019/20 estimate.

The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2021 has been lowered by 13.6 million tonnes since October to 876 million tonnes, just 0.5 percent above opening levels and now falling below the 2017/18 record. The resulting world cereals stocks-to-use ratio in 2020/21 stands at 31.1 percent, slightly below the 31.8 percent in 2019/20, but still relatively high from a historical perspective. The latest downward revision to stocks largely stems from a further sharp cut (10.8 million tonnes) in the global maize inventory forecast, with lowered stocks in several countries, including Brazil on stronger exports, China on greater domestic consumption, and the EU and the USA on reduced production prospects. This months cut negates previous expectations of growth in global maize stocks, now forecast to fall 2.5 percent below their opening levels, reaching their lowest level in five years, as well as global coarse grains inventories, now forecast just slightly below their opening levels at 281 million tonnes. The forecast for global wheat inventories is also lowered by 3.8 million tonnes this month, on lower expected stocks in the EU, the USA and the Russian Federation. Despite these downward revisions, global wheat stocks are still forecast to increase to 184 million tonnes, 1.9 percent above opening levels. However, if China is excluded from the forecast, global wheat inventories would likely contract by 3.7 percent, driven by expected declines in several leading wheat exporters, including Argentina, the EU and the USA, mostly due to reduced harvests. By contrast, continued build-ups in the major rice exporters are anticipated to keep world rice stocks at the close of 2020/21 essentially stable year-on-year, at 182.0 million tonnes. If confirmed, these trends would result in the global rice stock-to-use ratio falling only marginally below the year-earlier estimate, while the major exporters stock-to-disappearance ratio rising to a seven-year high.

FAOs forecast for global trade in cereals in 2020/21 has been lifted since October to 451 million tonnes, now 3.0 percent higher than in 2019/20. The bulk of the upward revision this month and the year-on-year foreseen increase is attributed to global coarse grains trade, now forecast to rise by 4.7 percent from the 2019/20 levels. Scaled up maize imports by the EU to compensate for lower expected production and stronger-than-earlier anticipated sales by Brazil and the USA pushed up the global maize trade forecast by 3.8 million tonnes to 179.8 million tonnes, 3.7 percent above last seasons level. FAOs forecast of world rice trade in 2021 (January-December) is pegged at 47.2 million tonnes, marginally changed since October and up 6.3 percent year-on-year. Global wheat trade continue to be forecast at a record 184.5 million tonnes in 2020/21 (July/June), slightly up from 2019/20 and unchanged since October. Larger expected sales by the Russian Federation since the previous forecast in October are balanced by anticipated reduced exports from Ukraine, on lower availability of exportable supplies. On the import side, foreseen greater purchases from Pakistan are countered by cuts in imports by the Philippines on expectations of reduced feed demand.

Agro Perspectiva

< Global food prices continue rising in October All news for
09.11.2020
Global almond production for 2020/21 is forecast 15 percent higher to 1.7 MMT >

13.01.2021  
17:25 China Demand and Global Supply Concerns Drive U.S. Soybean Price Higher
16:30 China Meat Consumption Expected to Rebound in 2021
10:50 Despite Grain Export Restrictions, Russia to Reclaim Top Wheat Export Position
31.12.2020  
16:37 2020 in review: Focus on staff well-being drives FAO forward
15:36 Sustainabilitys influence on chocolate purchase decisions continues to grow, Cargill study finds
13:35 Malaysia. Palm oil (CPO) production forecast - 19.6 million MT
28.12.2020  
15:09 Serbias total area wheat crop is estimated at 600,000 ha
14:10 India. Winter temperatures this coming December through February, along with precipitation will be critical
24.12.2020  
17:15 Make #NotWasting food a personal resolution
16:15 Two cases of HPAI on duck farms in France threatening the foie gras industry
22.12.2020  
21:25 Philip Morris files suit against Ukraine in intl investment arbitration due to AMCU penalty
21:00 FAO moves to scale up response to Fall Armyworm as pest continues to spread
17.12.2020  
17:15 Global Environment Facility approves over $78 million to support FAO-led projects
16:38 Desert Locust upsurge continues to threaten food security in Horn of Africa and Yemen despite intense efforts
11.12.2020  
15:55 India Tariff Cut Boosts Palm Oil Imports
13:31 Global Wheat Prices Supported by Record Global Imports
08.12.2020  
13:00 Jose Carlos Corral Montilla appointed to Managing Director of BTC Europe
12:10 Chile. Avocado exports will reach 145,000 MT, assuming planted area and productivity remain unchanged
07.12.2020  
15:30 Cargill, IFPEN and Axens collaborate to advance lactic-to-acrylic-acid technology
04.12.2020  
14:15 World 2020 cereal production forecast reduced further
13:50 FAO Food Price Index rises sharply
13:25 EBRD supports Ukrainian pet food producer Kormotech
03.12.2020  
16:10 Thailand: Rice export prices increased 1-3 percent
16:05 FAO and partners advocate for inclusive food systems to combat rural poverty
01.12.2020  
14:05 Draft state budget for 2021 submitted to Rada for consideration at second reading
30.11.2020  
15:10 Belgian Regains African Swine Fever-Free Status
29.11.2020  
01:20 HPAI Detected in Commercial Turkey Flock in Sweden
25.11.2020  
13:50 Poland has been the EUs largest turkey meat producer since 2017
12:01 Global 2020/21 Sugar Production is Estimated Higher United States, India, and Brazil Up 10 to 40 Percent
10:50 HPAI Detected in Commercial Flock in Denmark
23.11.2020  
17:10 FAO urges G20 to support farmers, protect the vulnerable and invest in innovation
18.11.2020  
17:00 Decline of Ukraine's GDP slows to 3.5% in Q3, 2020 statistics
16:35 Bulgarian grain trading has been slower than the previous season
12.11.2020  
12:21 Bosch and BASF establish joint venture for digital technologies in the agricultural sector
08:50 Lower Sunflower Seed Production in Ukraine and Russia Tightens Global Oilseed Supplies
10.11.2020  
17:00 Global almond production for 2020/21 is forecast 15 percent higher to 1.7 MMT
09.11.2020  
10:48 Despite a cut in world cereal production, this years forecast output remains an all-time high
08.11.2020  
14:50 Global food prices continue rising in October
05.11.2020  
12:15 BASF and TECNALIA accelerate R&D of new crop protection products through digitalization
03.11.2020  
17:00 Scrapie Identified in Sheep in Iceland
16:35 National budget receipts target met by 109.8% in Oct Treasury
28.10.2020  
17:00 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and FAO approve COVID-19 technical support package
16:45 2020 EU milk deliveries will grow by one percent
27.10.2020  
16:41 Pork. Global productionisforecast 4 percent higher in 2021 due to rebounding output in countries affected by ASF
26.10.2020  
17:00 FAO and OIE kickstart global initiative to stop spread of deadly pig disease
16:50 KWS Group achieved an approximately 15% increase in net sales to 1.28 billion in fiscal 2019/2020
16:35 NBU keeps key policy rate at 6%
23.10.2020  
13:00 Cargill invests to promote circular economy with its first multi waste- and residues-based biodiesel plant
21.10.2020  
13:55 International prices of wheat and maize rose sharply in September but those of rice edged down
20.10.2020  
20:45 ACC insists on early adoption of law on govt bond issue for settlements with 'green' energy

Also available: 

Agrarian Week in digital



READ ON-LINE




NewsNews - News - News - News - News - News
BriefWeekly Reports - Free article
SubscriptionTariff - News&Reports
AdvertisingMagazine - Site
ConferencesForum AGRO-2013 - DAIRY WORLD-2008 - FERTILIZERS-2010
Statistics
For our clientsAgroNewsDaily - Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market - Fertilizers - Milk Monthly - Milk Weekly
About usAbout project - Contact
2002 -2021 © Agrarika, ltd.
tel.: +380 44 4868119; +380 44 5934540
e-mail: client@agroperspectiva.com