Agro Perspectiva

Sugar Overview 2019/2020

22.11.2019 12:38 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Sugar: World Markets and Trade (November 2019), U.S. production is estimated down 4 percent to 7.8 million tons due to poor harvest conditions resulting in lower sugarbeet production. The largest reductions are centered in the Red River Valley in the States of North Dakota and Minnesota. Louisiana cane sugar production is also reduced due to expected lower sugarcane yields and lower recovery rate. Imports at 2.9 million tons are up slightly, consumption is forecast relatively flat, but stocks are estimated to decline to 1.2 million tons.

Brazil’s production is estimated down slightly to 29.4 million tons due to more sugarcane being diverted towards ethanol production and less to sugar (35 percent of the total sugarcane output is expected to be used for sugar as opposed to 35.9 percent during the previous crop). Exports are projected to drop 1.0 million tons to 18.6 million representing the lowest level in the past 12 years. Exports have not been competitive against sugar (domestic consumption) and ethanol production (both domestic consumption and exports). Stocks are up 80,000 tons while consumption is up slightly.

India’s production is estimated to decline 5.0 million tons to 29.3 million due to lower area and yields. Consumption is estimated at a record, 28.5 million tons, due to a growing economy. Exports are estimated to reach 5.0 million tons as a subsidy is provided to cover marketing expenses such as handling, upgrading processing costs, and freight charges. Stocks are expected to be over twice the ideal requirement of 2 to 3 months and are pivotal to supporting higher consumption and exports in the face of lower production.

Production in the European Union is forecast up 119,000 tons to 17.9 million. With stable consumption expected to be above production yet again, the EU is estimated to be a net importer of about half a million tons. Stocks are forecast to be 1.0 million tons.

Thailand’s production is forecast to decline 1.0 million tons to 13.5 million on lower sugarcane yields and sugar extraction rates due to lower-than-expected precipitation. Consumption is up slightly with increased household use more than offsetting weaker demand from non-alcohol beverage manufactures and canned pineapple processors. Exports are forecast at 10.5 million tons, bringing stocks to 10.0 million.

China’s production is estimated up for the fourth straight year, to 10.9 million tons, due to expanded cane and beet area. Imports are estimated lower based on anticipated draw-down of stocks and stricter border controls. Consumption is unchanged.

Mexico’s production is estimated to fall 10 percent to 6.1 million tons due to drought conditions. Although area harvested is up 1 percent, sugarcane yield is down 11 percent from last year as drought has severely reduced yields in the Northeast and Gulf of Mexico production regions. Consumption is projected flat. Exports are projected down due to the expected lower supplies. Mexico is forecast to fully meet its export allocations to supply the U.S. market as provided in the AD/CVD Suspension Agreements. Stocks are estimated to be sufficient to cover delivery needs before the start of the 2020/21 campaign.

Pakistan’s production is forecast down 300,000 tons to 5.2 million because of reduced area. Consumption continues to grow at a steady rate, largely because of a growing population and an expanding domestic food-processing sector. Exports and stocks are projected to decline. Australia’s production is forecast to fall 5 percent to 4.5 million tons on lower yields due to dry weather. Consumption is unchanged while exports are expected to be down due to the lower production.

Australia’s largest export markets include Japan, Indonesia, Singapore, and South Korea with about 80 percent of Australia’s sugar production going into exports.