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Dry weather cuts hopes for West Australian canola
18.08.2010 11:16 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Oilseeds experts have cut their hopes for the canola crop in Australia’s most important arable state, blaming a continuing dry spell, with the last rain of «any significance» falling more than a month ago.
The Australian Oilseeds Federation cut 105,000 tonnes, to 960,000 tonnes, its forecast for Western Australia’s canola production.
The revision — which put Australia’s top growing state for the rapeseed variant on course for a fall in production despite an extra 130,000 hectares in sowings — reflected dry weather which has left «little, if any, reserves of subsoil moisture» in northern and eastern areas.
And the federation warned of further downgrades should rains, which have not fallen in «any significance» since July 9, did not recover to average levels.
Western Australia is the significant risk for the Australian crop this year," the group said.
«Evidence of wilting is now commonplace in the north and eastern regions.»
The concerns come amid lingering fears that the state, also the country’s biggest grain-growing region, may mar what otherwise looks a bumper year for Australian crops, following plentiful rains in eastern areas.
«It is still too dry in Western Australia,» Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Luke Mathews said, noting similar concerns for Argentina too.
Indeed, prospects for both countries, the southern hemisphere’s biggest wheat exporters, are widely seen as crucial to determining the date of the wheat rally stemming from drought in Russia.
The AOF lifted its estimates for canola production in New South Wales and Victoria, noting the «favourable» conditions both in terms of weather and raised crop prices, which had encouraged farmers to apply fertilizers and support yields.
Rains had been so plentiful that «the threat of water logging of all winter crops» was emerging in New South Wales, while the prospect of a spring locust hatching represented a «growing» threat.
Australia’s government, in its latest advice on the insect, says that «the outlook is for a serious widespread nymph infestation in New South Wales, northern Victoria and eastern South Australia during spring, with some localised high density hatchings in Southwest Queensland also possible».
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