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US Soya Complex Down On Profit Taking
13.08.2010 09:59 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Soybeans closed lower on Wednesday. Products were split. September soybeans lost 4 3/4 cents to close at $10.16 1/2. September meal was down $1.80 to close at $294.50. September soybean oil was up 16 points to close at 41.77 cents. New-crop November soybeans lost 6 1/2 cents to close at $10.15 1/2.
USDA has tended to be on the bullish side in its August production report versus average trade forecasts. In fact, every year since 2001 the August USDA estimate has been less than the average trade forecast. The difference is an average of 48 million bushels. Out of those nine years, November soybean futures have closed higher six times on the report day. This year, the average trade forecast is at 3.366 billion in the Dow Jones survey. History doesnt have to repeat, but if it does, it would project to production moderately over 3.3 billion bushels.
November soybean futures have not shown any real bias long-term in their price performance on the report day. Over the past 30 years, the November futures has closed higher in the trading session after the August report 16 times and lower 14 times. Over the past ten years, prices have closed higher seven times and lower three times.That could be related to production expectations.
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