Soybean meal is expected to be a more competitive feed ingredient on higher global supplies.
12.03.2024 08:10 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
According to the report of the USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (March 2024), Diverging Trends for U. S. Soybean and Soybean Meal Exports in 2023 Calendar year (CY) 2023 exports of U.S. soybeans and soybean meal diverged, with a marked decrease in soybeans compared to record high soybean meal. Year‐over‐year soybean exports shrunk 15 percent by volume (48.7 million tons) and 19 percent by value ($27.9 billion). Conversely, U.S. soybean meal exports rose 20 percent by volume (14.1 million tons) and 21 percent by value ($7.4 billion). Soybean exports for 2023 fell by value to three of the top four markets from last year: China (‐15 percent), Mexico (‐24 percent), and Japan (‐26 percent). Major contributors to this decline include record Brazil soybean production and higher crush demand in the United States, which contributed to higher prices for U.S. soybeans. Meanwhile, exports to the European Union were up 32 percent by value, in part due to stronger Chinese demand for Brazil soybeans. Soybean meal has become one of the top ten exported U.S. agricultural products following 5 years of steady value growth. In 2023, exports of soybean meal rose to record levels on ample exportable supplies due to high domestic crush supported by U.S. biofuel policy and lower output from Argentina due to drought. The Philippines was the top market for U.S. soybean meal, raising imports of U.S. product by 25 percent. South American markets, including Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela, also grew imports of U.S. soybean meal owing to reduced supply from Argentina. Lower meal supplies from Argentina also contributed to a near‐doubling of U.S. exports to the European Union, especially to Ireland and Poland. Looking ahead, U.S. soybean exports are forecast to further decline in marketing year 2023/24. This forecast is based on the expectation that domestic crush continues to grow as well as continuing large soybean production in South America. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean meal exports are expected to grow further in 2023/24. However, ample global supplies due to higher soybean processing in South America will prevent robust export gains. Soybean meal is expected to be a more competitive feed ingredient on higher global supplies. AGRO PERSPECTIVA offers Agro + «Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market» weekly analytical bulletin. Concerning subscription please contact: client@agroperspectiva.com Concerning subscription please contact: +380 67 596 46 52 (WhatsApp).
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