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Canada. CWB outlook shows decline in wheat values
26.04.2010 11:23 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) released on April 22 its April 2010 Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the upcoming 2010–11 crop year.
Wheat values are down C$7 per tonne from last month for all grades and classes. Durum values are C$2 to C$7 lower. Malting barley and feed barley values are unchanged, according to the CWB.
The CWB’s outlook shows wheat prices are expected to remain constrained by large global wheat stocks in the 2010–11 marketing year, with world production expected to exceed demand. The net effect is that ending stocks are forecast to increase from 196 million tonnes to roughly 207 million tonnes, according to the CWB.
Of equal significance to the overall price structure in the coming marketing year is total supply of wheat in both the world and the U.S. markets, the CWB said. Despite the smaller crop, the U.S. wheat supply is going to grow year-on-year. Demand growth will only partially offset this increase, resulting in greater U.S. wheat ending stocks in 2010–11. This is unfavorable to wheat prices, the CWB said. Likewise, world stocks will increase in 2010–11 because demand is not anticipated to keep pace.
Wheat will remain dependent on factors from both within and outside the agricultural commodity complex, according to CWB. Wheat prices are expected to receive direction from other commodities, especially corn and soybeans. U.S. corn is off to a tremendous start, with 19% of expected acres seeded by mid-April, well ahead of the five-year average. This has prompted increased corn planting and, depending on weather, could further increase the corn supply-and-demand balance, causing downward pressure on agricultural commodity prices.
Outside factors, including oil prices and the general macro-economic climate will also continue to impact agricultural prices, the CWB said. Currently, both have tended to be positive as the recovery continues and crude oil prices have defied increasing inventories to remain north of $80 per barrel.
Foreign exchange rates continue to have a negative impact on the PRO, according to the CWB. The Canadian dollar has remained close to parity throughout the April. A strong Canadian dollar has a directly negative impact on farm-gate returns. The U. S. dollar also remains relatively strong against the Euro, which has increased the competitiveness of European wheat, especially in Asian and Latin American markets. Reports that China might allow its currency more leeway to «float» may bolster commodity prices in general, according to the CWB.
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