Agro Perspectiva

2022 Global Rice Exports Forecast to Top 50 Million Tons, Led by India

10.02.2022 11:28 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (February 2022), the 2022 forecast for global rice exports is expected to exceed 50 million metric tons for the second year in a row, down only slightly from the 2021 record. The rise in global exports in recent years is driven by growing import demand, especially in Africa, including Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire, and Asia, including China and Nepal. The additional demand has been predominately supplied by India, which has more than doubled its exports since 2019. While shipments for the next largest exporters, Vietnam and Thailand, are expected up for 2022, India still dominates global trade.

India has ample supplies, with record production and near-record area harvested, as well as abundant beginning stocks. During the past decade, India has consistently increased its Minimum Price Support (MSP) for most supported commodities, including rice, leading to larger area dedicated to The 2022 forecast for global rice exports is expected to exceed 50 million metric tons for the second year in a row, down only slightly from the 2021 record. The rise in global exports in recent years is driven by growing import demand, especially in Africa, including Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire, and Asia, including China and Nepal. The additional

demand has been predominately supplied by India, which has more than doubled its exports since 2019. While shipments for the next largest exporters, Vietnam and Thailand, are expected up for 2022, India still dominates global trade.

India has ample supplies, with record production and near-record area harvested, as well as abundant beginning stocks. During the past decade, India has consistently increased its Minimum Price Support (MSP) for most supported commodities, including rice, leading to larger area dedicated to production. Additionally, record yields have led to record production. Furthermore, global demand for low-priced rice is currently strong, and Indian rice has remained well

below other exporters’ prices for 2 years (see rice price graph on page 10). Finally, India has invested significantly in its deep-water ports, enabling it to ship in bulk in addition to the typical containers.

Even with slightly lower imports for 2022, demand from certain major importers will support strong India exports. Top importer China has been purchasing significant quantities of Indian broken rice to supplement feed rations. Ironically, Vietnam, a large exporter, has also been importing significant quantities of India’s broken rice. India’s ability to supply both parboiled and regular white rice at competitive prices will also propel exports to Sub-Saharan Africa where imports are projected to grow.

Indian fragrant basmati rice will continue to dominate the global market, particularly in the Middle East production. Additionally, record yields have led to record production. Furthermore, global demand for low-priced rice is currently strong, and Indian rice has remained well below other exporters’ prices for 2 years (see

rice price graph on page 10). Finally, India has invested significantly in its deep-water ports, enabling it to ship in bulk in addition to the typical containers.

Indian fragrant basmati rice will continue to dominate the global market, particularly in the Middle East.