Brazil Soybeans: Production Lowered Due to Drought in the Southern States

14.01.2022 12:05 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA World Agricultural Production (January 2022), Brazil soybean production for marketing year 2021/22 is estimated at a record 139.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 5.0 mmt (3percent) from last month, but up 1 mmt (1 percent) from last season’s record crop. Harvested area is estimated at a r ecord 40.4 million hectares (mha), up 1.5 mha (4 percent) from last season’s record area. Yield is estimated at 3.44 tons per hectare (t/ha), 3 percent

below last month and last season. The decrease is attributed to histor ic dry conditions during November and December during critical reproductive crop stages in the southern state of Paraná.

Rainfall patterns display a clear dichotomy between the center/ north and southern regions. The central and northern regions have received excessive rainfall, whereas the south is in the midst of an extended rainfall deficit which is typical duringa La Niña. The lack of soil moisture has resulted in a pause in planting in the state of Rio Grandedo Sul where 7 percent of the intended area remains to be sown. The 2-month period from November through December was one of the driest in southern Brazil as observed by the Standardized Precipitation Index, with the state of Paraná particularly impacted. More than half of the s oybean crop was in critical flowering and grain-fill stages and SEAB-DERAL reports significant yield losses of 37 percent in the state. The satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows extremely poor crop development for western Paraná and below average conditions for eastern Paraná. For the state of Rio Grande do Sul, only about 10 percent of the crop was in flower during December, and January rains could yet prove beneficial.

Soybean planted area continues to increase nationally, with the largest acreage gains in the major producing states (Mato Grosso leads with a gain of 420,000 hectares),and significant percent gains in the northeast and Rondônia. Pl anting began in earnest in early October with progress ahead of the 5-year average, except in the southern states where it was close to the 5-year average. Harvest began in January in Mato Grosso and yield expectations remain excellent in the center-west states.

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