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Argentina and Brazil: Inverse Corn Export Prospects in 2020/21
10.11.2021 09:51 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (November 2021), Argentina corn exports for MY 2020/21 (Mar 2021-Feb 2022) are currently forecast at 38.5 million tons; if realized, this volume would be Argentina’s largest corn exports on record. The outlook for Argentine corn is buoyed by weakening prospects for Brazil, whose exports for MY 2020/21 (also Mar 2021-Feb 2022) are forecast at just 17.5 million tons on a poor safrinha harvest. A depreciating Argentine peso has favored exports, whereas strong domestic demand in Brazil has had the opposite effect. Though the pace of Argentina exports from March to September 2021 is modestly higher than last year, volumes for the remaining months are expected to pick up and exceed year-ago levels; sailed vessel data indicate that this will be the case for October. In contrast, Brazil’s exports over the same period are down by nearly half and data for October show just over 1.8 million tons of exports, a far cry from the 5.0 million tons in October 2020.
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