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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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South Africa’s corn crop for the 2021/22 MY could once again top 16.0 MMT

04.11.2021 17:08 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U. S. Department of Agriculture attache in The Pretoria, after last season’s second consecutive bumper corn crop, the positive outlook for the South African grain industry will continue in the 2021/22 MY as evidenced by a 30 percent upsurge in tractor sales and the intention of commercial producers to maintain a corn area of 2.7 million hectares. As a result, South Africa’s corn crop for the 2021/22 MY, under normal climatic conditions, could once again top 16.0 million tons, with the potential for 3.0 million tons of corn exports. In the current marketing year (2020/21 MY), after producing the second largest crop in history of 16.8 million tons, South Africa is heading to 3.5 million tons of corn exports.

Executive Summary

Post increased its estimate for the commercial area to be planted with corn in the 2021/22 MY to 2.7 million hectares. This estimate is in line with the results of the Crop Estimates Committee’s (CEC) «intention to plant survey» that was released on October 27, 2021. Relatively attractive local market prices, progressive exports and favorable weather forecasts are positively influencing producers planting decisions. Under normal climatic conditions and taking into account the subsistence farming sector, South Africa’s corn crop for the 2021/22 MY could reach 16.1 million tons on 3.0 million hectares and, as a result, South Africa should be able to export around 3.0 million tons of corn in the 2021/22 MY.

In the current marketing year (2020/21 MY), South Africa should be able to increase corn exports by almost 40 percent to 3.5 million tons. In the first 24 weeks of the 2020/21 MY, South Africa already exported 1.8 million tons of corn, 1.6 million tons of yellow corn and 237,000 tons of white corn.

Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam are currently the major markets for South Africa’s corn.

CORN

Production

Post increased its estimate for the commercial area to be planted with corn in the 2021/22 MY1 by eight percent to 2.7 million hectares, down slightly from 2020/21 MY. This will be the second consecutive year that South African commercial corn producers will plant more than 2.7 million hectares of corn, well above the 10-year average corn area of 2.5 million hectares. The positive outlook in the South African grain industry is also evident in a 30 percent year-on-year upsurge in tractors and combine harvester sales. Relatively attractive local market prices, progressive exports and favorable weather forecasts are influencing producers planting decisions.

Post’s estimates on area planted with corn in the 2021/22 MY is in line with the results of the CEC’s «intention to plant survey» that was released on October 27, 2021. According to the CEC survey, commercial farmers indicated that they would plant 2.7 million hectares of corn in the 2021/22 MY.

The intention by commercial farmers is to plant 1.6 million hectares of white corn and 1.1 million hectares of yellow corn.

Under normal climatic conditions, and taking into account the subsistence farming sector, South Africa’s corn crop for the 2021/22 MY could reach 16.1 million tons on 3.0 million hectares, an increase of seven percent from Post’s previous estimate of 15.0 million tons.

Many corn producers have already started to plant in the summer rainfall areas of South Africa after receiving favorable early season rainfall in addition to reasonable carry-over soil moisture. In the eastern regions of South Africa, including the provinces of Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, and the eastern Free State, planting of summer grains usually commence from around the middle of October and ends around the middle of November. For the western regions (Northwest and western Free State provinces) the optimal planting window is between the middle of November to end of December.

Agro Perspectiva

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04.11.2021

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