Ample Supplies Enable Australia Wheat Exports to Soar Again

13.10.2021 12:39 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (October 2021), global 2021/22 wheat production edges up only slightly from the prior year, but consumption is projected to rise even more. As a result of smaller crops for some key exporters, importers are increasingly relying upon Australia to meet their needs. After a multi-year drought, Australia wheat production rebounded in 2020/21, enabling exports to more than double compared to the previous

year. Exports are expected to hit a near-record in 2020/21 and are forecast only slightly lower in 2021/22 as larger beginning stocks offset a smaller crop. Australia’s share of global exports is forecast to rise to 12 percent in 2021/22 compared to only 5 percent 2 years ago.

Australia exports remain primarily focused on Asia given the preferences for its classes of wheat, in particular white wheat, and its close proximity. With back-to-back bumper crops, Australia has a larger overall quantity available at attractive prices. In 2020/21, Australia has successfully recaptured market share in Indonesia (its traditional largest destination and the second-largest global importer) as Black Sea and U.S. exports to that market contracted. In 2021/22, large production shortfalls in Canada are expected to keep the door open for further Australia exports to Indonesia. Vietnam has also become a major destination for Australian wheat, with its robust demand for both food and feed uses. Despite trade disputes with other commodities, China has continued to purchase high-quality wheat from Australia. Australia has also made remarkable gains in the Philippine market, which is primarily supplied by the United States.

In the short term, Australia’s current competitive prices amid sufficient supplies will spur it to become the third-largest exporter. Australia is expected to continue to supply Asia based on its competitive freight rates. Nearby markets can purchase with shorter delivery times relative to other exporters.

Many of its key markets are witnessing strong consumption growth but do not produce wheat. As long as there is sufficient production, Australia’s exports are likely to remain robust over the longer term.

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