Vietnam. Soybean meal demand for feed use is forecast to increase in MY2021/22 as the swine herd repopulates

20.04.2021 11:50 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U. S. Department of Agriculture attache in The Hanoi, Vietnam’s hog and sow herds are recovering from the impacts of African swine fever (ASF), with the total swine population increasing by 20.8 percent to 27.3 million head as of December 31, 2020, compared to January 1, 2020, according to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD).

Swine feed accounts for most total feed demand. Post forecasts total feed demand to increase to 27.8 million metric tons (tons) in MY2020/21 and to 28.4 million tons in MY2021/22 as the swine herd repopulates along with a forecasted increase in poultry production and bovine herd expansion. Vietnam has issued their National Livestock Development Strategy 2021–2030, with the goal of maintaining the swine herd at around 30 million head.

Driven by the increase in domestic feed demand, total soybean crush and soybean meal (SBM) for feed use are forecast to increase to 1.5 million tons and 6.1 million tons respectively in MY2021/22.

Soybean meal accounts for the largest share of oilseed meal used for aqua and animal feed.

Vietnam’s soybean imports are forecast up to 2.1 million tons in MY2020/21 and to 2.2 million tons in MY2021/22 due to increases in domestic feed demand and soy oil needs. Soybeans for food consumption are forecast to grow by four percent in MY2020/21 and MY2021/22 following an expected recovery from COVID-19.

Vietnam’s SBM imports are forecast to increase slightly to 5.2 million tons in MY2021/22 with the forecasted increase in SBM production from crushing plants offsetting a smaller increase in imports.

An increase of vegetable oil use in food processing and home cooking will offset decreases in food service demand due to the closure of restaurants, hotels, canteens in industrial zones, and schools in MY2019/20 caused by COVID-19, leading to oil consumption growth of two and five percent in MY2020/21 and MY2021/22 respectively.

Peanut and soybean production in Vietnam are forecast to continue to decline based on shrinking planted area as farmers continue to switch to more profitable fruits and vegetables.

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