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Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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Global 2020/21 Sugar Production is Estimated Higher United States, India, and Brazil Up 10 to 40 Percent

25.11.2020 12:01 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Sugar: World Markets and Trade (November 2020), global production for Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 is estimated up 16 million metric tons raw value (tons) to 182 million, with Brazil expected to account for three-fourths of the surge. Consumption is expected to rise due to growth in

markets such as India, China, Indonesia, and Iran and is estimated to draw stocks lower despite a rebound in output. Exports are expected to be up sharply with

rising supplies (particularly in Brazil).

2020/21 Sugar Overview

U.S. production is forecast up 10 percent to 8.2 million tons, due to greater harvested area and yields for sugarbeets and sugarcane. With higher production, imports are forecast more than 25 percent lower at 2.7 million tons. Imports are based on projected quota programs and the calculation of U. S. Needs as defined in the U.S./Mexico Suspension Agreements. Consumption is forecast slightly lower but is still the second largest on record, while stocks are projected down 19 percent due to the lower imports.

Mexico sugar production is forecast to recover 13 percent to 6.3 million tons on favorable weather and growing conditions after an historic drought hit the previous year’s crop. Consumption is projected down slightly as it faces many challenges, ranging from a weak economy affecting consumer purchasing power to new front-of-the pack labeling for products that exceed critical thresholds of certain nutrients (e.g. fats, sugars, sodium, etc.). Exports are forecast higher, projected at the expected level of U. S. Needs, as defined in the Suspension Agreements, and some exports to other markets. Stocks are up based on the calculated stock level needed to cover 2.5 months of consumption.

Brazil production is forecast to rebound 12.1 million tons to 42.1 million due to higher returns to sugar compared to ethanol and overall favorable weather. Approximately 48 percent of the sugarcane crop is expected to be processed for sugar and 52 percent for ethanol, versus last year’s 35 and 65 percent split, respectively, as the COVID-19 pandemic and social distance measures have reduced fuel use. While consumption is expected to be down, stocks and exports are forecast to rise with the higher available supplies.

India production is forecast to rebound 17 percent to 33.8 million tons on higher yields and area. Consumption is forecast at a record 28.5 million tons due to a growing economy while exports are expected to be up slightly to 6.0 million tons as supplies remain high. Stocks are estimated at levels that could meet 7 months of consumption.

Production in the European Union is forecast at 16.1 million tons, down for the third year in a row. The drop is due to lower yields, which stem from 3 straight years of drought, combined with severe damages from beet yellows virus disease, which has hit France particularly hard.

Consumption is unchanged while imports are estimated higher and stocks are forecast down with the drop in production.

Thailand production is forecast to decline to 7.9 million tons, down 5 percent as drought has driven reductions in area, yields, and extraction rates.

Consumption is expected to increase on higher demand for direct sugar consumption and food services. Exports are forecast up slightly while stocks are forecast to be down for the second year in a row.

China production is forecast to remain relatively steady, up slightly to 10.5 million, due to higher beet sugar production.

Consumption is forecast to return to pre-COVID levels as the food and beverage industry is expected to fully recover from the fallout of the COVID-19 crisis. Imports are up slightly with the rebound in consumption, and stocks are expected to fall for a sixth consecutive year as government policies continue to discourage stockholding.

Pakistan production is forecast up 14 percent to 6.0 million tons due to higher area. Consumption is forecast to grow modestly on growing population and an expanding domestic food processing sector. Exports are forecast down while stocks are expected to be higher with the increase in supplies.

Australia production is estimated to be flat at 4.3 million tons due to lower yields on greater area. Consumption is up slightly while exports are down due to the lower available supplies.

Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea are Australia’s top markets and are expected to account for over 80 percent of exports.

South Africa production is estimated down slightly to 2.2 million tons due to reductions in cane quality and volume delivered to the mills and lower mill efficiencies. Consumption is up based on higher demand during the national lockdown from at home consumers, resulting in an increase in activities such as cooking and baking. Exports and stocks are down due to the lower production.

Malaysia is the top market accounting for over half of exports.

Dominican Republic production is forecast up 3 percent to 610,000 tons due to favourable weather conditions. Consumption is up slightly due to the expected recovery in tourism and brighter prospects for small and medium-sized processing companies that are currently limiting operations due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Exports are forecast down to 190,000 tons with the United States expected to be the only major export market (this volume is similar to the allocation for the U.S. tariff-rate quota). Stocks are expected to be higher due to greater supplies.

Agro Perspectiva

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