Agro Perspectiva

The European Union cheese export forecast for 2020 is revised up by 3 percent to 925,000 tons

27.07.2020 17:00 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Dairy: World Markets and Trade (July 2020), the European Union cheese export forecast for 2020 is revised up by 3 percent to 925,000 tons which represents an expansion of 5 percent over 2019. Year-to-date shipments this year have been about 9 percent ahead in comparison to the same period last year. However, shipments are expected to slow down during the second half of the year as the availability of industrial milk declines due to the seasonal decline in milk production.

Traditionally the United States has been the largest market for EU cheese accounting for about 16 percent of EU shipments in 2019. This year, shipments to the U.S. import market through May are down about 11 percent. This may have been due to COVID-19 affecting the food service sector and the retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent imposed on imports of EU cheeses by the United States starting in October 2019. These retaliatory tariffs were in response to a World Trade Organization ruling in favor of the United States over EU subsidies to Airbus. While EU cheese exports to the United States declined, shipments particularly to the Ukraine, South Korea, and Japan markets have increased significantly.

To support the dairy market during the COVID-19 pandemic, in late April the European Union authorized the subsidization of storage costs for up to 100,000 tons of cheese for between 60–180 days under the Private Storage Scheme. Cumulative volumes through end-of-June total 48,000 tons.

As a result of a slight decrease in the milk production forecast for New Zealand, the 2020 cheese production forecast is trimmed by 1 percent to 360 million tons. With more limited exportable supplies, cheese shipments are expected to be lower and the export forecast is revised down by 10,000 tons to 340,000 tons.

Cheese shipments through May are already down 5 percent YOY primarily due to decreased exports to China, Australia, and Japan. In contrast, sales to South Korea are up by about 49 percent YOY.

The United States production 2020 forecast is revised up by 1 percent to 6.15 million tons with most of the additional cheese being channeled to domestic consumption which is expected to grow by 4 percent YOY. Cheese exports through May are lagging last year’s pace by 5 percent with a notable slowdown in shipments to such key markets as South Korea and Japan. Surprisingly, sales to Mexico have been faring well with exports to this market through May up 5 percent YOY. However, recent high prices for U.S. cheese relative to competitors have dimmed prospects and the export forecast is revised down by 3 percent to 353,000 tons.