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Wheat rally faces Argentine and Australian tests
05.08.2010 12:57 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Southern hemisphere grain crops face a critical period which may prove crucial in determining the fate of wheat prices, with dry weather persisting in parts of key exporters Argentina and Australia.
Conditions will determine whether farmers in Argentina, South America’s biggest wheat shipper, complete all 4.2m hectares of wheat sowings that government and stock exchange beancounters have pencilled in, with dry weather persisting in many parts.
«Planting is still going on in Argentina and the dry conditions across the state of Buenos Aries are expected to bring down total acres,» Kevin Kjorsvik, at US broker Benson Quinn Commodities, said, flagging «talk of drought in the southern hemisphere».
An Argentine government report late on Monday highlighted that in Laboulaye, the south of Cordoba province, «wheat plots are suffering from a lack of water, with too little growth».
Meanwhile, Co-operative Bulk Handling, the Australian grain handler, voiced concerns for the crop in its stronghold of Western Australia, the country’s biggest grains state, after rainfall of only one-third of the average in June and July.
Without significant rain by the end of August «we’re in trouble», Colin Tutt, CBH’s general manager of operations, said, pegging the state’s crop at 6.0m tonnes in 2010–11, down 2.25m tonnes year on year.
However, US Department of Agriculture staff in Canberra lifted by 1.2m tonnes, to 23.2m tonnes, their estimate for the total Australian harvest, and said that further increases to yield estimates could «not be ruled out» given «favourable planting conditions».
While acknowledging «more difficult conditions» in Western Australia, they said that overall «excellent timing of rainfall┘ combined with good follow-up rainfall provided little climatic constraint for wheat planting».
The fate of southern hemisphere is seen by many analysts as key in determining the fate of wheat’s rally, as it was during the 2007–08 spike, which was accelerated to its full potential by drought in Australia.
Macquarie analyst Alex Bos told Agrimoney.com that southern hemisphere drought looked the most likely trigger for him to alter to bullish, from neutral, his rating on wheat prices.
Australia is the southern hemisphere’s largest wheat exporter, typically to Asian countries such as Japan, with Argentina selling largely to Brazil.
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